Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible.

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has joined former US vice president Al Gore in calling on the nations of the world to unite in combating global warming, did not pause to bask in the delight of sharing the Nobel Peace Prize with Gore. Instead, on November 17, it issued its gravest warning to the world.

More extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to climate change, the panel's final report concluded.

However, this tocsin sounded to the entire world hardly resonated at all in Taiwan, where the legislative and presidential elections three months ahead are more important than how Taiwan must grapple with the climate crisis.

While the Taiwanese government looks coldly upon the issue, Mother Nature has played a cruel joke on the island, tossing it between extremes of hot and cool temperature.

The very day the IPCC issued its warning, the people of Taipei, who would normally be changing into long-sleeved winter apparel, were still in short sleeves grousing about the heat. Meteorological statistics indicate that the high temperature that day reached 28.5 degrees Celsius, but plummeted the next day nearly 10 degrees. Meanwhile, Typhoon Mitag was lurking over the seas to the island's south.

Although Typhoon Mitag ended up merely skirting past Taiwan, it did visit heavy rains on the island, washing out portions of the Suao-Hualien Coastal Highway once again.

The rapid temperature drop caught many older people off guard and unable to respond in time, causing a rise in illnesses. In southern Taiwan alone, three elderly people reportedly died as a result of myocardial infarction brought about by the cold weather.

I. Health Crisis - Strokes and Heart Attacks Rise

As the earth warms, the weather is becoming increasingly extreme. Summer temperatures rise sharply to new highs, and winter temperatures fluctuate wildly between warm and cool. The human body cannot easily adjust quickly enough to these fluctuations, and chronic illness becomes a constant state of being.

Research commissioned by the Environmental Protection Administration and National Science Council analyzed temperature data in Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung between 1960 and 1990, as well as information released by the Department of Health regarding medical visitations among the populace. The report found that with extreme fluctuations between hot and cold temperatures under the trend of global warming, instances of strokes, high blood pressure or Ischemic heart disease increase, and that different chronic ailments are reflected in different urban areas.

The report's initial findings indicate that with the trend of global warming, the risks of stroke were raised in Taichung and Kaohsiung in spring and summer, the mortality rate from Ischemic heart disease rose in Taichung in summer, and the relative risk of death from high blood pressure rose the most in Taipei during the summer.

Older people are most sensitive to temperature changes. Taiwan is moving towards becoming an aging society, and extreme weather variations will tax Taiwanese society and the medical system, relates Professor Chung-Ming Liu, director of National Taiwan University's (NTU) Global Change Research Center, Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

II. Infestation Crisis - Infectious Diseases Spread

In addition to chronic illnesses, warming also aids the spread of infectious diseases, dengue fever being the most prominent example.

This past summer, Tainan City hosted the National Games for the first time in 23 years. Under the banner Healthy City, Mayor Hsu Tain-tsair enthusiastically greeted athletes and visitors alike to the festivities.

However, an unexpected outbreak of dengue fever turned the Healthy City slogan on its end. What a loss of face, Hsu repeatedly moaned.

Although the director of the Tainan Health Bureau stepped down to take responsibility, that move did nothing to help stem the spread of the epidemic. As of mid-November, over one thousand confirmed cases of dengue fever had been counted in Tainan City.

Worst Dengue Fever Outbreak in a Decade

The most severe dengue fever outbreak in a decade was taking place all around the world at the same time, with over 350,000 infections and more than 1500 deaths throughout Southeast Asia. The outbreak hit India, Thailand, and Malaysia, and not even Singapore, with its reputation for cleanliness, was spared.

Professor Ih-Jen Su, former director of the Center for Disease Control and currently director of the Division of Clinical Research at the National Health Research Institute, noting that Singapore and Taiwan have long been considered round the world to be models of protection against dengue fever, says that the breach of Singapore's defenses sends a warning to Taiwan. Epidemics only advance, not retreat, he relates dejectedly.

Professor Chung-Ming Liu observes that in just 10 years dengue fever has spread steadily from Kaohsiung, the southernmost part of Taiwan, northward to Tainan. If the trend of warming winters continues unabated in Taiwan, it could be possible to see dengue fever spread to pandemic levels as far north as Taipei and Keelung.

Shaking his head, Dr. Ih-Jen Su says that if that day comes, We'll just have to learn to live with dengue fever.

III. Industry Crisis - Vanishing Dongding Oolong Tea

Global warming impacts not only people's health, but also economic development. Dongding oolong tea production in Nantou County's Luku Township has declined significantly, marking a tangible example of climate change's economic impact.

Lin Kuo-liang, a tea grower who has produced and grown his own oolong tea for over 30 years, keenly observes that Luku Township's climate has changed from one that befits growing tea - cool, humid and frequently enveloped in fog - to one that is increasingly warmer. As the temperatures have risen, he has noticed a corresponding decline in the number of foggy days, offering that they are lucky to have a few days of heavy fog cover per month.

According to Lin, 20 years ago it never got higher than 35 degrees Celsius during the summer, but now the mercury often rises to nearly 40 degrees. If it rains in the afternoon, the rain falls on ground that has heated up, which causes the tea bush roots to rot easily and eventually wither and die. Lin's wife has surveyed the tea fields, finding that one-half of the bushes died from dehydration. Meanwhile, those bushes that survived seem to have their growth stunted, making the devastation unbearable to see.

Under the impact of global warming, the number of tea growers in Luku has declined by approximately 20 percent over the past decade, as farmers have either chosen to grow such subtropical crops as bananas or migrated to higher altitude hillsides to cultivate tea. The move to higher mountains could sow the seeds for devastating soil erosion and landslides in the future.

Climate change has already tangibly endangered the lives of Taiwanese people, yet two draft laws aimed at mitigating global warming, the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act and the Energy Tax Act, are sitting idly in the Legislative Yuan due to opposition from government economic departments.

We can't keep obstructing the passage of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act on the grounds that compulsory reduction of carbon emissions will hamper economic growth. If we don't do something now, we're going to have to pay the higher cost of dealing with catastrophic climate change in the future, which will have an even greater impact on the economy, opines Tze-Luen Lin, assistant professor of political science at NTU and one of a handful of scholars in Taiwan involved in the research of environmental politics.

Lin offers that climate change should go beyond the level of being an environmental issue and be considered from such angles as economic, social, and energy security. It should be viewed as part of overall national security since it affects the security of the lives and property of everyone, he says.

Climate Change and National Security

For instance, Taiwan imports 97 percent of its energy. If a disaster similar to Hurricane Katrina should strike major oil refinery installations, or a major blizzard in the United States caused a sharp rise in the demand for oil to heat homes, the subsequent climb in international energy prices would surely affect prices in Taiwan. This would put an even tighter pinch on the less affluent in Taiwan and threaten social stability.

The impact of climate change goes all the way down the line; it's not simply about a natural sciences research report, stresses Tze-Luen Lin.

However, government departments in charge of economic policy and economists such as Chen Po-chih counsel, Don't go blindly following the Kyoto Protocol, since Taiwan is not a signatory, nor are China and the United States - the world's two biggest carbon dioxide emitters. They caution regarding the impact on economic growth if Taiwan voluntarily restricts carbon dioxide emissions.

However, comparison of statistics on economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions for Germany, Denmark and the United Kingdom indicates that these advanced countries have only turned in better economic performances as they have cut emissions.

Michael Reilly, director of the British Trade amp; Cultural Office in Taiwan, relates that since 1990, the UK has reduced carbon dioxide emissions 15 percent, during which time the country's economy has grown by 35 percent. The number of employed people has also reached a new peak during this time.

Taiwan's dilemma is that economic growth and increased carbon dioxide emissions cannot be decoupled. High energy consumption industries consume over one-third of the entire country's energy, yet they only account for seven percent of the GDP. This is a blatant violation of social justice, says legislator Wang To-far.

Future economic development is certain to move toward lower carbon emission targets. Whether Taiwan can get on board with this trend will depend on the determination of politicians.

Can Taiwan's Political Parties Reach a Consensus?

In Taiwan, where a great divide separates the blue camp (centered on the Kuomintang) and the green camp (centered on the Democratic Progressive Party), can climate change become a common issue of focus across party lines?

Australia, which also previously refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, recently held a major election. Labour Party leader Kevin Rudd's pledge on election eve to make responding to climate change a priority issue struck a chord with voters, helping end the 11-year rule of Conservative prime minister John Howard.

While US president George W. Bush refuses to sign the Kyoto Protocol, the mayors of US cities like New York, Chicago and Seattle have formed an alliance, drawing up greenhouse gas reduction targets and response measures in the effort to combat global warming.

Attempting to reflect true public opinion, on December 8 Taiwan's Green Party and other civic groups organized a rally bringing people together from all over the island to mark the UN Climate Change Conference held in Bali, Indonesia from December 3 to 14, and demand that the government take the crisis of climate change seriously.

As politicians set their sights on getting elected every four years, we hope they will also reflect on Taiwan's direction over the next century, offers NTU Global Change Research Center director Chung-Ming Liu.

Translated from the Chinese by David Toman