Today (March 21^st), Chinese President Xi Jinping will make his first overseas state visit of 2019. He’ll be stopping by three European countries: Italy, Monaco, and France. Of these three destinations, the Italian itinerary has fallen under the most scrutiny. This is because the Italian government is prepared to sign a non-binding memorandum of understanding to support China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Their willingness to play ball with Xi is a major blow to the United States’ effort to obstruct the New Silk Road. Xi’s plan to drop by the Vatican is also highly disconcerting to Taiwan, since the Holy See is one of Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic allies in the world.

Early in March, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte expressed interest in signing a memorandum with China in support of BRI. Both Conte and Michele Geraci, the undersecretary of state in the Italian Ministry of Economic Development, have stressed this move was not a geopolitical paradigm shift, but a simple business deal promoting trade with China and exporting more Italian goods to the Far East. Conte has also promised to introduce EU trade laws and standards to the New Silk Road.

However, the fact remains that Italy may become the first Western power from the Group of Seven (G7) to sign a BRI memorandum with China. This has got the rest of the West worried. The United States fear Italy’s newfound friendship with China will undermine their efforts to check Chinese expansion. The European Union worries Italy is cutting its own deal with China, which may hamstring any attempt for the EU to present a unified front against BRI.

Italy may be the first G7 country to entertain thoughts about working with China, but it’s hardly the first EU country. Seven European nations have already signed documents pertaining to cooperation on BRI: Croatia, Czech, Hungary, Greece, Malta, Poland, and Portugal.

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Another highlight of Xi’s trip to Italy is whether he will swing by Vatican City in Rome and meet Pope Francis.

Currently, the Vatican is still a diplomatic ally of the Republic of China—Taiwan. It has no official diplomatic relationship with the People’s Republic of China because the Chinese government does not recognize papal supremacy within its borders. Chinese bishops are appointed by the state; in turn, the Pope does not recognize their authority over Chinese Catholics.

This may change. Last September, China and Vatican City signed a controversial two-year provisional agreement on the appointment of bishops, which lifted the excommunications on seven illegitimate Chinese bishops. This has paved the way for the two leaders to meet. Italian media are abuzz with predictions. Their consensus is a meeting is not out of the question. Both leaders have expressed willingness to meet, and Pope Francis has met with the Vietnamese president before, despite the lack of full diplomatic relations between the Vatican and Vietnam.

Should the President meet the Pope, it would mean the Chinese government has recognized the Holy See’s authority over Chinese Catholics. It would be a dramatic about-face for a regime that espouses state atheism and has clamped down on religious freedom in recent years. It might be some kind of progress on the global stage, but for Taiwan, which counts the Vatican as one of its few remaining allies, it would be a major setback.

Translated by Jack C.
Edited by Sharon Tseng