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Exclusive 2020 State of the Nation Survey

Taiwan vs. Republic of China, the Brewing Generational Conflict

Taiwan vs. Republic of China, the Brewing Generational Conflict

Source:CommonWealth Magazine Video

Who are we? What’s our country’s name? CommonWealth Magazine’s latest exclusive State of the Nation Survey reveals that on matters of national identity and Chinese unification, the generational schism is at a record high. Taiwanese under forty chooses “Taiwan” over “Republic of China”. Sixty percent of Taiwanese over forty supports the status quo. 

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Taiwan vs. Republic of China, the Brewing Generational Conflict

By Rebecca Lin
From CommonWealth Magazine (vol. 689 )

The first thing you see when you step into his office are dozens of election banners and pennants hanging from the ceiling. There’s even a massive flag, designed for the campaign trail, situated in a corner. These are the results of years of hard work by Nathan F. Batto, Associate Research Fellow at the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica (中研院政治研究所). 

Don’t let his passion for Taiwanese politics and election paraphernalia fool you. Batto is a golden-haired, bright-eyed American citizen. “In Taiwan, identity and sovereignty surpass every other topic.” Batto has studied Taiwanese politics for three decades; he knows his stuff. “The entire political climate in Taiwan still revolves around two simple questions: ‘what is Taiwan?’ And, ‘what’s our relationship with China?’”

Self-identification and relations with China have always been the central theme of Taiwanese politics. 

                               

Starting from early 2019, when Chinese president Xi Jinping delivered a speech espousing reunification on the 40th anniversary of China issuing the “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan” (告台灣同胞書); and then in mid-2019, when Hong Kong’s anti-extradition protests began making waves; Taiwanese politics have always been affected by ripples from across the strait. Reverberations from these events will influence our ethnic and national identification. 

The Generational Gap Has Grown Wider than the North-South Divide

As political scientist Tzu-chiao Su (蘇子喬) points out, traditionally, the political schism in Taiwan has been between blue party (KMT) supporters in the north and green party (DPP) supporters in the south. This distinction weakened after the 2014 elections. A new breed of social conflict is more likely to happen along the lines of the generational gap rather than regional boundaries. 

In terms of Taiwan’s national identity, the disparity between the generations has reached a record high. 

CommonWealth Magazine’s 2020 State of the Nation Survey found that over eighty percent of Taiwanese age twenty to twenty-nine self-identifies as “Taiwanese”. (Table 1) The majority supports Taiwanese independence over maintaining the status quo. (Table 2-2) Over half of them thinks we should refer to our country as “Taiwan” when speaking to the outside world. (Table 3)

Among Taiwanese over forty, more than sixty percent identifies with “Republic of China” or “Taiwan, Republic of China”. (Table 3) When it comes to cross-strait relations, more than sixty percent supports maintaining the status quo. (Table 2-2)

CommonWealth once reported on how familial ties between parents and children were strained by the upcoming presidential election.

Cross-generation Consensus: “One Country, Two Systems” is Unsuitable for Taiwan

The only consensus between the generations is the rejection of “one country, two systems”. Even though opinions are sharply divided after a year of turmoil, over ninety percent of Taiwanese agree on this one question: “one country, two systems” is unsuitable for Taiwan. Only 2.8% of those surveyed was in favor of this principle. (Table 4)

2019 was a turning point in cross-strait relations. President Tsai Ing-wen rejected Xi’s reunification proposal as a rehash of the “one country, two systems” principle. Not long after, the wave of anti-extradition protests began to surge in Hong Kong. The conflict and unrest in Hong Kong have inspired fear and suspicion of China’s idea of “reunification”. “Reunification” became synonymous with “one country, two systems”; and “one country, two systems” was equated with the situation in Hong Kong. (Read: Taiwan President Issues Statement Regarding Hong Kong Protest)

The consensus: the “one country, two systems” principle doesn’t suit Taiwan. The annual State of the Nation Survey also found that over sixty percent of Taiwanese think the KMT’s “Cross-Strait Peace Treaty” cannot guarantee Taiwan’s safety. (Photo by Chien-Ying Chiu/CW)

So far, the pro-Beijing KMT has failed to serve up a convincing counter-narrative. Chang Hsien-yao (張顯耀), the former Special Deputy Minister of the Mainland Affairs Council and former KMT Deputy Secretary-General, says that public opinion has coalesced behind anti-Chinese sentiment. Fear of China and resistance against Chinese rule has led to the movement to preserve “Taiwan”. This has been the DPP’s political logic and narrative for the past twenty years. The acrimony between China and the United States, as well as the Hong Kong protests, all fed into the momentum that resulted in today’s tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

Generational Conflict I: Nearly 60% Under Thirty Wants Independence 

The first symptom of increased cross-strait tensions is how the Taiwanese think of the future. The percentage of Taiwanese citizens in favor of reunification has dropped to an all-time low. When asked about the ideal scenario for Taiwan-Mainland relations, only 5.5% responded in favor of unconditional reunification or reunification under certain conditions. This is the lowest it’s been since 2002. Support for reunification has always polled around 10% for the past eighteen years; the peak was 18.9% in 2003. (Table 2-1)

It’s worth noting that maintaining the status quo is still the most popular option. 58.1% of those surveyed is in favor of it, a record high since 2009. But 58.5% of Taiwanese age twenty to twenty-nine opts for “Taiwanese independence and peaceful relations with China” or “Taiwanese independence regardless of Chinese response”. In short, there’s now more groundswell behind independence than the status quo. 

“The argument for reunification is becoming less and less convincing in Taiwan,” says a political observer who declines to be named.

In terms of self-identification, an overwhelming 62% self-identifies as Taiwanese. 28% self-identifies as both Taiwanese and Chinese. Only 6.5% self-identifies as Chinese. (Table 1)

When asked which name best represents our country, 39.7% of those surveyed advocates the name “Taiwan”. 38.3% says “Republic of China”. 16.8% supports the name “Taiwan, Republic of China”, which was once used by Tsai during a National Day speech. (Table 3)

Generational Conflict II: Taiwanese Over Forty Support Republic of China Over Taiwan

If we analyze the age groups of those surveyed, we see that Taiwanese over forty support “Republic of China” instead of Taiwan. But Taiwanese age twenty to thirty-nine prefer the name of “Taiwan” over Republic of China.

In terms of self-identification and national identification, the generational gap is becoming more and more pronounced.

“The crisis and schism of Taiwan’s identity is certainly growing more serious,” says Chang, who continues to operate in Kaohsiung’s Zuoying and Nanzih Districts. As someone who’s frequently in contact with public servants and military dependents’ villages, Chang found that third-generation Mainlander-Taiwanese (descendants of Chinese who migrated to Taiwan after the Chinese Civil War) hold very different views compared to their fathers and grandfathers. One’s national identity is influenced by one’s self-identification and ethnic identification. A younger person has fewer ties with China instilled in them during their education and socialization process. 

The southwesterly wind blowing from Hong Kong has scattered the KMT’s entire cross-strait narrative. The foundation of existing cross-strait politics has also been eroded by the turmoil in Hong Kong, and the far more powerful China-United States trade war. 

“Taiwan can only pick one side between two powerful rivals. Across the strait, we speak the same language and are of the same ethnicity, but our lifestyles and democratic values are more aligned with the United States.” Chang maps out how this conflict has fed into the DPP’s strategy of siding with the United States against China. The younger generation has accepted this policy wholeheartedly. “The generational division will become a key factor in future civil unrest in Taiwan.” 

Greater vigilance against Chinese intrusion influences the choices we make in our personal lives as well. When asked if they’d be willing to work in China, those who said yes went from a record high of 40.3% in 2019 to only 28.8% this year. Proclivity toward letting one’s children study in China also trended toward conservative in 2020. (Table 5)

When asked if they thought the KMT’s “Cross-Strait Peace Treaty” (兩岸和平協議) would be able to ensure Taiwan’s safety, 63.4% of those surveyed says no. Only 23.1% says yes. (Table 6)

“This is not only a choice made out of fear, it is also the result of rational calculation,” says a political scientist who declines to be named. The acrimony between China and the United States has caused the U.S. to crack down on Chinese industries and talent. This naturally affects people’s willingness to work or study in China.

This year’s State of the Nation Survey shows that under the influence of the China-United States trade war and the unrest in Hong Kong, Taiwan’s national identity and our inclination toward independence or unification have strayed further and further from Xi’s ideal of the “One-China Policy”. 

The world is always in flux. How China ultimately deals with the Hong Kong problem, and what is the end game between China and the U.S.—all these factors may form a great wave that impacts or even engulfs Taiwan. The only certainty we have of the future is there will be more and more uncertainty.  

Have you read?
♦ Belief, Identity, Patriotism: Why Are We Going Crazy?
♦ 'Taiwan Shouldn’t Feel Inadequate Compared to China'
♦ New Polling Data Reflect Deepening Taiwanese Identity

About CommonWealth Magazine’s 2020 State of the Nation Survey

This survey was conducted by the CommonWealth Magazine Survey Center from November 21 to 24, 2019, using a Taiwan telephone book as the main sampling frame. The stratified random sample method was used to select home telephone numbers at random, with the last two digits of the numbers randomly substituted. A total of 1,073 valid responses were obtained from people living in Taiwan age twenty and over. The survey has a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.99 percentage points. All data were weighted and adjusted for gender, age, educational background, and place of residence.

Survey execution: Jimmy Hsiung, Chang Yu-hsuan of the CommonWealth Magazine Survey Center
Translated by Jack C.
Edited by Sharon Tseng

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