“From the coastline, you can see a lot of lemon sharks swimming around,” is how National Sun Yat-sen University Department of Oceanography professor Keryea Soong described the Dongsha (Pratas) Islands, where he visited at the beginning of July. 

The islands, one of the few land features held by Taiwan in the South China Sea, are treasure chests of natural resources, home to green sea turtles rarely seen on the island of Taiwan and to red coral illegally poached by Chinese and Vietnamese fishing boats.

According to Kyodo News, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is expected to hold war games in waters off Hainan Island in August, just 718 kilometers away from this natural wonderland (also known as the Pratas Islands). The PLA will reportedly simulate an invasion of the Dongsha Islands, which has triggered alarms in many quarters.

So could China capitalize on the current disorder in the South China Sea to take control of the small islets? 

Legislator Charles Chen, who also serves as executive director of the Institute for Taiwan-America Studies, said such a scenario was unlikely. Arguing that China’s military exercises are routine, he said Beijing’s leak that the drills will simulate a takeover of the Dongsha Islands indicated their greater political than military significance.

Low Risk of War, but Need for Vigilance Remains

Yet the United States deployed two aircraft carriers, the Nimitz and the Reagan, in the South China Sea in early July, sending a clear message of deterrence. Legislator Wang Ting-yu, who has traveled several times to the Dongsha Islands, said China also has an aircraft carrier deployed in the South China Sea.

“The United States and China dancing the tango with their aircraft carriers reminds me of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis,” Wang suggested.

At a time of heightened tensions, however, the risk exists on both sides of setting off an accidental conflict. Bonnie Glaser, the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, felt “China is frustrated by the U.S.’ growing presence in the South China” and is not particularly keen to have two U.S. aircraft carriers operating there. 

Wang Ting-yu was more direct in his assessment. “Trump and Xi Jinping both need a war to consolidate domestic support,” he contended, saying that if the American military took action, the two sides would inevitably enter into a “limited conflict.” Under such circumstances, Wu speculated that China might try to take the Dongsha Islands as a bargaining chip to use against the U.S.

If China were to succeed at such a mission, would Taiwan be able to launch a counterattack?

There are currently 200 Coast Guard officers stationed on the Dongsha Islands, all of whom have received training with the Marines. But one retired general worries that the weapons with the longest firing range typically deployed on the islands are 120 mm mortars able to fire shells a distance of only six kilometers. He doubted these could hold off an attack by the PLA’s precision weapons and heavy artillery.

Over the past 20 years, operating under the principle of a demilitarized South China Sea, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has not deployed soldiers on the Dongsha Islands in part for fear of sparking resistance from neighboring countries. But the international situation is changing, and countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, whose sovereignty over certain South China Sea atolls has long been threatened by China, are increasingly leaning toward the United States. 

A 20-Year First! ‘Iron Force’ + New Weapons

Against this backdrop, Taiwan deployed its 99th Marine Brigade known as the “Iron Force” to the Dongsha Islands in May for the first time in 20 years.

Legislator Wang said the 99th Marine Brigade is trained by the U.S. military and has anti-landing and anti-air capabilities. “They can achieve the most with the least resources,” Wang said.

Photo provided by Wang Ting-yu

In the past, if Taiwan had sent troops to the South China Sea, the United States would have condemned it and Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries would have protested. “But this time, that didn’t happen because everyone is working together to deter China’s expansion,” Wang said.

Taiwan seems to have support in the White House. Since Donald Trump took office as U.S. president in January 2017, America’s weapons sales to Taiwan have totaled US$13.2 billion. “Whenever Taiwan makes a request, the U.S. will announce it after it has been approved, very different from the “package” deals of the past. Now, weapons sales undergo “case-by-case reviews,” giving Taiwan greater protection,” said one military expert. That is because it gives Taiwan greater freedom to pick and choose the weapons it most needs.

Taiwan recently got a boost recently with the delivery of AAV-7 amphibious assault vehicles in July. The AAV demonstrated its mettle in the Gulf War in 1990, able to sail at a speed of 13 kilometers per hour and then maintain a speed of 73 kilometers per hour on land. Equipped with reactive armor, it also offers good protection for Marines’ “counter-landing” operations.     

In addition, the United States is also expected to approve the sale of the Himars (high mobility artillery rocket system) system, with its 300-kilometer firing range, to Taiwan. The military expert revealed that Taiwan’s military has made requests to purchase the system several times in the past to counter the threat of the PLA’s long-range rocket launchers, but has always been turned down.

With tensions mounting in the South China Sea, however, the U.S. has finally given in on the Himars, and if Taiwan’s military can deploy it on the Dongsha Islands, its range would reach the PLA’s major bases in the South China Sea, solving the problem of the lack of range of the mortars currently deployed there.

Preparing for the Worst

With reinforcements from the 99th Marine Brigade and the United States apparently willing to sell Taiwan more and better weapons, Taiwan has the ability to hold on to the Dongsha Islands on its own without having to necessarily rely on the U.S., Glaser believed. 
The islands, however, are flat and without any natural defense positions, and Taiwan’s military has already prepared for the worst with a “Border Defense Battle Plan.” Under the plan, the moment the enemy takes the islands, the Navy will send a special task force combining Navy and Marines forces to the region to carry out amphibious attacks. They will be supported by special forces brought in on Navy C-130 transport planes to reinforce the islets by airdrop or tactical landing.

The situation on the Pratas Islands is tense, and the closest to war Taiwan has been since the 1996 missile crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Because conditions in the South China Sea turn rough in September and are not conducive to naval missions, if the PLA is intent on making a move, August is the key month to watch. 

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Translated by Luke Sabatier
Uploaded by  Penny Chiang