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Taipei Lockdown: Three Containment Models to Flatten the Curve

How far is Taiwan from community spread? Nearly half of Taiwan’s confirmed COVID-19 cases are concentrated in Taipei City and New Taipei City. What are the risks for these two northern metropolises given their high population density and high frequency of human activity? If a regional lockdown were to become inevitable, what can be done to effectively contain the pandemic?

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By Chen-Hua Chen, Daniel Kao, Yi-Wen Lin, Yu-Hsin Lee
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2020-04-08

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Many cities and municipalities worldwide have initiated lockdowns in response to COVID-19. But are these lockdowns actually effective in slowing the pandemic’s spread? And if community spread were to break out in the greater Taipei region, what could be done to effectively contain the pandemic’s spread in such high risk areas?

How Far Off Is Large-scale Community Spread?

In late March, Taiwan confirmed it's 300th case of novel coronavirus. As of March 30, Taiwan has recorded multiple incidents of community spread, including eight cases of unknown origin. These incidents give cause for concern, raising the question: “how far away is Taiwan from rampant community spread?”

To answer this question, researchers at the National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Public Health created models that simulate community spread. Using these models, they are able to determine when a pandemic enters a stage of exponential growth.

The model is derived from the Basic Reproduction Number (commonly known as the R0) and local positive testing rate. An R0 of greater than 1.5 represents community spread, and an R0 of greater than 2.0 means a full-scale outbreak.

To Lock Down or Not? R0 is the Key... (Click here to read full story)