In the early 1990s, the fossil fuel share in the world total energy supply stood roughly at 80%. We burned 8.5 billion tons of coal each year, and on average more than 10’000 full loaded tanker trucks worth of crude oil were combusted each hour of the day, every day. 

Fortunately, since then the build-out of renewables has gathered pace, in the last decade billions of dollars have been invested into solar power, wind energy, bioenergy and electrification of transport and industry - so now in the early 2020s we have got the fossil share part of the energy mix down to roughly…. 80%!

That’s right, the fossil fuel share, even with all our investments and efforts, still stands at a solid 80% of total consumed energy volumes! The fossil share of the global energy supply has not budged a bit, and due to the larger total energy volumes being used, the amount of fossil fuels has increased quite a lot since the 1990s, with coal, the dirtiest fuel, almost doubling in volume. 

The renewable build-out has of course not been in vain, and the fossil fuel share would be even higher today if it were not for all our combined efforts. However, it’s only managed to keep pace with fossil fuels, but has not put a real dent and initiated a downward trend that we so badly need. 

The problem with this energy mix is getting even more evident. Manmade emissions are now trapping the equivalent of 4 Hiroshima nuclear bombs’ worth of heat into the atmosphere and oceans every second. This energy returns in the form of frequent storms, excessive rainfall, and other climate related effects - which should be reason enough for a rapid shift from our dangerous fossil addiction.

But there's another strong reason to get off fossil fuels, which is becoming ever more evident, namely energy security and geopolitical stability. Regions such as the EU imports 61% of all energy needs, and the geopolitical tensions this causes has become blatantly evident in the light of Russian aggression against Ukraine. 

Equally in Taiwan, imported energy mainly from fossil fuels accounted for a staggering 98% of all energy demand in 2020. A longer disruption of these supplies would put the country into a complete standstill, and just as in the EU, a new strategy should be a high national security priority.

Since there’s not any more reasonable doubt that we need to do something about this, then the question is just how?

What got us here, will not take us there

Our previous efforts have simply not been up to the task. Fortunately, the solution in front of us is quite clear - we simply need to do what we are already doing but at a larger scale and much faster. 

The good news is that renewables such as wind and solar are now the cheapest form of new power production in over 90% of countries globally, even taking balancing and infrastructure into account. The market is hence now working with us instead of against us, we just need to unleash these market forces to work in our favor.

Only 5% of all the renewables that have to be built out for the energy transition, have been built out. To properly scale this and gather pace we have to remove the 3 remaining bottlenecks:

• Reach renewable tipping points 

• Allocate land

• Deployment Infrastructure

Reaching renewable tipping points and attaining green-discounts: Cost of renewable energy and related technologies has fallen massively; in the past 10 years the cost of onshore wind power has fallen by 70%, offshore by a similar amount in 6 years, solar and batteries has fallen 85-90% over the past 10 years. Due to the cost decreases, these technologies are now competitive and cheaper than their fossil alternatives.

The above technologies have thus passed their ”Renewable tipping points”, where the market economic forces simply favor these technologies on market terms alone without government financial intervention - hence the momentum of the market economy is put into play.

The main reason for this cost miracle is scale. 

(Source: Fredrik Andrén-Sandberg)

When the deployment increases, costs come down due to scale advantage and innovation. When prices come down, it becomes easier to deploy more capacity. Since capacity is increased, prices decrease even further in a virtuous spiral of technology development and cumulative advantage. It’s the similar trend that has been working with computing power and semiconductors - which has come down million fold in price per unit of utilization in just over a few decades.

We need to do this with more technologies that can enable energy transition. 

(Source: Fredrik Andrén-Sandberg)

There are still many technologies where cost has to come down, where there is currently a premium too high for going green: CO2 free aviation fuels made with renewable energy, green hydrogen, CO2 free cement, green steel and many others. If the governments can provide bridging financial support for these technologies, then the cost for these could also fall below the cost of their conventional cousin’s - and the renewable premium can be turned into a renewable discount. Taiwan can take the lead to bring technology to scale, while providing similar advantage for exports as in the semiconductor industry

Land allocation: All renewable energy sources need space. To build-out the next 95%, more space will be required. The problem currently is that we seldom prioritize or treat energy production as a strategic land industry, in the same manner we treat agriculture, forestry or fisheries. 

The good news is that renewable energy can very well co-exist with other uses of land, and does not need to fully take up all space it covers in itself. However, it needs to be put on equal terms of conventional uses of land. To do this, at least 2% of land areas must be dedicated for renewable energy production, where other land uses can coexist but renewable energy gets priority. Similar allocation also needs to be done for sea areas, with percentages in accordance with possibilities endowed and other industries. Fisheries can also very well coexist and even thrive further with offshore wind for instance.

(Source: Fredrik Andrén-Sandberg)

Enabling infrastructure: Renewable power can only deliver if the means of infrastructure are there. This means power grids expansion, electrification of industry, heating and electric transport so that the renewable power can do their work. It also means building ships and airplanes that can use the next generation of electro-fuels that will be produced.

Also, although renewable energy can deliver the bulk of the needed energy volumes - it still needs other technologies to store power and back them up, when there is insufficient sun or wind to meet demand. This can include various storage technologies, renewable turbine backups and sufficient interconnectors that balance out the production over larger areas. 

Instead of building out these enablers as a reaction to increased demand, we need to start building them proactively and ensure that our permitting legislation is fit for the purpose of an evolving system. Ten years of grid permitting and one year of building must be history.

The opportunities for a better tomorrow

We currently face several tough challenges - energy security, global warming, environmental degradation, and many others. The daunting scale can turn us numb and passive. But the good news is that we now have the tools available to us to be able to fix this.

History is the story of conditions that long seem reasonable, until they begin to seem ridiculous. We need to become architects, invent the future we want to have, and make 80% fossil fuel share history. 

Taiwan has already taken a lead position in offshore wind globally, now it's time to show the same leadership across technologies and show the way for the rest of the world.

 (This piece reflects the author's opinion, and does not represent the opinion of CommonWealth Magazine.)

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About the Author:

Fredrik Andrén-Sandberg, Public Affairs Head at Vestas, Swedish national with +10 years of international Renewable energy experience across companies in EU & APAC markets. Worked broadly renewable technologies within Offshore & Onshore wind, Solar, Hydrogen (PtX), Biomass and mobility solutions. Currently working across topics and markets within Public Affairs, Responsible for Hydrogen (PtX) Policy across Vestas.

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