In early September, Taiwan experienced continuous heavy rain. Southern Taiwan hadn't seen significant rain in almost 600 days, facing long-term water shortages until Typhoon Doksuri alleviated the situation. Globally, high temperatures, wildfires, and extreme rainfall resulting in flooding have become frequent, making extreme weather patterns almost a daily occurrence. 

In response to climate change, UN member countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, pledging to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Taiwan has also announced its commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and passed the "Climate Change Response Act" earlier this year.

According to the "2023 Net Zero Transition Public Opinion Survey" by National Taiwan University’s Risk Society and Policy Research Center, over 80% of Taiwanese support the aggressive transition to renewable energy, warning of severe climate disasters for future generations otherwise. Currently, all three presidential candidates agree that Taiwan should achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, a rare cross-party consensus.

Economically, with the European Union set to impose carbon tariffs and major countries around the world pledging to achieve net-zero emissions, major global companies are joining RE100, committing to using 100% renewable energy. For Taiwan, pursuing net-zero emissions is not only a moral responsibility to mitigate extreme climates but also a survival strategy for its export-oriented economy.

However, Taiwan's energy transition lags behind developed countries. Since the late 1990s, I've participated in national energy conferences, and the government has been hesitant to commit to energy and industrial transformations to reduce carbon. Industry was largely opposed to carbon reduction policies. In 2008, President Ma Ying-jeou was skeptical about renewable energy, considering it a lesser priority. Taiwan has always been reactive, influenced by global trends, rather than proactive.

Only under President Tsai Ing-wen's leadership since 2016 did the government set a goal for renewable energy to reach 20% by 2025, advancing toward a low-carbon, non-nuclear transition. Without this clear political commitment, Taiwan would likely be overwhelmed by the global push for net-zero by 2050.

According to the National Development Council's roadmap, by 2050, almost all energy used in residential, commercial, and transportation in Taiwan should be electrified, deriving from renewable or other carbon-free sources. Manufacturing should also use decarbonized energy and processes. Any remaining carbon emissions should be offset by natural carbon sinks like forests or controversial carbon capture and storage technologies.

Current presidential candidates, Lai Ching-te, Hou You-yi, and Ko Wen-je, are they ready for these immense challenges?

Take the renewable energy transition goal for example, Lai Ching-te proposes a 30% renewable energy target by 2030, Ko Wen-je aims for 40%, while Hou You-yi suggests 27%. Currently, renewable energy accounts for only 8% due to conflicts between photovoltaics and agriculture, fisheries, and conservation efforts. This means that by 2024, regardless of who becomes president, the promotion of terrestrial photovoltaics will continue with its associated challenges. How will the candidates address these issues and achieve renewable energy targets realistically?

Regarding nuclear energy, the Democratic Progressive Party proposes eliminating nuclear power by 2025. Ko Wen-je advocates for the extension of the second and third nuclear power plants, while Hou You-yi proposes a 12% nuclear power goal by 2030 and 18% by 2050. However, the fuel rod pools of the first and second nuclear power plants are full, and there's no final disposal sites for nuclear waste. Given these circumstances, how can Hou achieve his goals? To reach 18% by 2050 would even require reactivating the fourth nuclear power plant and potentially building a fifth!

As companies join RE100, prioritizing renewable energy over nuclear energy would be the most beneficial strategy for Taiwan. Otherwise, debating where to place nuclear power plants and how to handle nuclear waste will only lead to significant societal costs, causing investment uncertainty and delaying net-zero transition progress.

From an industrial transition perspective: Taiwan's top ten carbon-emitting companies account for 38% of the country's total emissions. Petrochemicals are the largest source, followed by steelmaking. Achieving net-zero would require transitioning to renewable energy or hydrogen energy and circular economy processes. Balancing this transformation with mitigating the impact on existing industry workers and creating new jobs poses significant challenges. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a benchmark in the electronics industry, has committed to using 100% renewable energy by 2040. However, as they rapidly expand, their electricity demand is expected to surge, possibly accounting for 15% of Taiwan's total consumption. How will this be addressed?

The journey to net-zero emissions by 2050 is undoubtedly challenging, and the path will be fraught with conflict and mistakes, requiring continuous adjustments. Taiwan faces constant disinformation campaigns from China, and polarizing party competition could exacerbate these challenges. Achieving a consensus on transition will require transparency, public participation, and unity.

During the pandemic, former Health Minister Chen Shih-chung held daily press conferences, disseminating scientific information, and emphasizing trust and transparency. Minister Chen demonstrated how a democratic society should confront crises: through transparent communication and uniting the public against challenges.

If the approach towards the 2050 net-zero transition can be similarly managed, with regular public dialogue and information sharing, it might mitigate some of the conflicts. However, the government must ensure there's time and space for dialogue and deliberation.

By 2024, whoever becomes president will have to face Taiwan's net-zero transition challenges. We hope the new president will face Taiwan's future squarely and act decisively from day one of their term.

(This piece reflects the author's opinion, and does not represent the opinion of CommonWealth Magazine.)

The CommonWealth English website and CommonWealth Magazine's Independent Opinion (獨立評論) continue to accept op-eds for the new president. Please follow this link for more info. 

About the author:

Ken-cheng Lee  is a co-founder of Citizen of the Earth, a not-for-profit environmental justice advocacy organization based in Taiwan. 

(This piece was machine-translated from the Chinese version, published on “Independent Opinions”.)

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