Dear President-elect, 

You have arguably one of the most difficult jobs in the world. 

Today, Taiwan faces critical domestic issues from energy security to care-provision for an aging population. To make matters worse, Taiwan, sandwiched between China and the U.S., is currently at the forefront of great power competition. Few nations today can claim that they face a tangible threat of war. Unfortunately, Taiwan enjoys this distinction. 

Beijing, which disputes Taiwan’s sovereignty, is not afraid to use its power to press its claim. Chinese aircrafts and sea vessels probe Taiwan’s air and sea spaces on a daily basis. The specter of Chinese economic warfare also looms large, as Beijing imposes restriction after restriction on Taiwanese imports. Taiwanese mangoes are the latest victims. 

But the relationship between Taiwan and China is not entirely adversarial. 

Taiwan and China share the same language and culture. Furthermore, more than a million Taiwanese citizens – many of whom brought business and technological know-how to China as its economy took off -- currently reside in China. Despite political tension, economic and social exchanges across the Taiwan strait remain substantial. 

The complexity of cross-strait relations fuels political polarization in Taiwan. Some of Taiwan’s voters focus on the threat China poses to Taiwan. Others, in contrast, underscore the cultural, economic, and social linkages between Taiwan and China. It is not unusual for voters from one camp to accuse the other camp of being traitors or warmongers. 

Notwithstanding their differences, these two opposites are united in their confidence that elegant dichotomies are sufficient for understanding complex situations. China is either a foe or a friend, and Taiwan is restricted to choosing between surrender or war, humiliation or dignity, and “red or dead”. 

But international politics is often messy and unpredictable, which – with much irony – is precisely why simplistic accounts have such seductive power. The human mind often prefers order to chaos and clarity to subtlety. 

False dichotomies – however concise and elegant -- threat peace in the Taiwan strait. They divide Taiwan and dull strategic creativity when Taiwan’s cultivation of “smart power” is becoming ever more important with China flexing its muscles. 

False dichotomies divide because they imbue the public with a misplaced sense of omniscience. And arrogance divides because it makes listening difficult. Taiwan has a population of 23 million, compared to China’s 1.3 billion. Given China’s geopolitical weight, does Taiwan have the luxury of bickering and political polarization? 

False dichotomies also prevent us from asking difficult but nonetheless important questions. To begin with, could it be possible that the green voters and the blue voters each have some valuable insights into cross-strait relations? Could China be both a friend and a foe?

Lord Palmerston, the British statesman of the mid 19th century, famously said that there are no permanent friends but only permanent interests in international politics. Logically, the statement implies that there are also no permanent enemies but only permanent interests. 

Despite our many differences, do Taiwan and China have any mutual interests? If so, what are they and how can Taipei make use of this common ground – however narrow – to initiate dialogue? It is easy to be defeatist, but we must not forget that we only make peace with our enemies, not our friends. 

It is also important for Taipei to reflect on how to reassure Beijing without emboldening it. How do we pacify but not appease? How do we deter but not provoke? If we are to converse with Beijing, how can we negotiate without negotiating away freedom?

False dichotomies make it difficult to ask difficult questions by masking the shades of grey in international politics. If we believe that China is an implacable foe, it would be foolish to investigate whether China and Taiwan share common ground. If we believe that Taiwan faces only the options of surrender or war, it would be foolish to have any hope in diplomacy. 

False dichotomies lead to intellectual poverty in strategic thinking. In turn, this poverty shrinks the space for peace by obstructing the formulation of pragmatic solutions to Taiwan’s China conundrum. Pragmatism presumes a good grasp of reality, however messy and unpleasant that reality might be. 

In your term as Taiwan’s next president, I hope that you will lead the charge against the false dichotomies that dominate Taiwan’s marketplace of ideas for cross-strait relations. I hope your administration will resist the temptation of relying on simplistic solutions to tackle complex problems. I hope your administration will manage the balancing act of being firm but not rigid, of reassuring without capitulation, and of deterring without provoking. I hope you will have advisors who place correctness beyond politically correctness. I hope you can open up political and intellectual space for a proper debate on Taiwan’s strategic future that will not descend into partisan slandering.

Most importantly, I hope you can continue to heal the political polarization that, due to our complex relationship with China, plagues Taiwan’s democracy. 

It is challenging enough for a united Taiwan to resist Chinese pressures, let alone a divided Taiwan. 

F. Scott Fitzgerald once wrote: “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” In this time of turbulence, it is a test of your leadership to demonstrate that Taiwan is a first-rate democracy that can reconcile diverse opinions while preserving its prosperity and security in this turbulent time. 

I congratulate you on having the honor of taking on these burdens.

(This piece reflects the author's opinion, and does not represent the opinion of CommonWealth Magazine.)

The CommonWealth English website and CommonWealth Magazine's Independent Opinion (獨立評論) continue to accept op-eds for the new president. Please follow this link for more info. 

About the author:

Dr. George Yin, He taught foreign policy at Swarthmore and Dartmouth. And he's also now a distinguished research fellow at National Taiwan University's Center for China Studies. He is also a research associate at Fairbank Center at Harvard.

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