In January 2024, Taiwan will hold its 8th direct presidential election. Meanwhile, 200 Chinese military aircrafts crossed the theoretical median line in the Taiwan Strait, entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, in September alone.

Again, war or peace has become an issue that voters must face.

As the presidential election, which will be held alongside parliamentary elections, draws closer, CommonWealth Magazine commissioned its largest- ever opinion poll, covering nearly 15,000 respondents. We wanted to understand what the Taiwanese people think about war and peace, international and cross-strait relations, and which issues on which they believe the next national leader should focus.

46 percent fear a cross-strait war

First, 46 percent of the respondents worry that a war could break out between Taiwan and China in the coming five years, while slightly more than half, 52.8 percent, do not share this concern.

The largest share of the respondents, 35.1 percent, declared themselves to have no political party preference, while 21.4 percent support the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), 20.1 percent identify with the major opposition Nationalist Party or Kuomintang (KMT), and 11.3 percent back the Taiwan People Party (TPP) of former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je.

KMT supporters are most worried about a possible war, with 64.3 percent voicing concern compared to 38.1 percent who do not worry.

Exactly the opposite is the case for supporters of the DPP, with 64 percent saying they are not worried about the risk of war.

“As long as Taiwan’s stance is correct, the United States and Japan will back us. It is quite clear that (Vice President) Lai Ching-te will continue the course of (President) Tsai Ing-wen, so nothing incalculable is going to happen,” asserts Mr. Yen, a 67-year- old oyster farmer, at the launch of a Lai campaign support group consisting of fishery organizations in Kaohsiung.

Tsai Jung-hsiang, a political science professor at National Chung-Cheng University, points out that the two major political parties differ in their approach toward avoiding war. The Tsai administration is positioning Taiwan as an “indispensable part” of the international community, a strategy that Lai can be expected to continue. Therefore, he is portraying next year’s election as “a choice between “democracy and autocracy.” If the will of the people in Taiwan could be swayed by Chinese threats of war, it would mean that “Taiwan’s democratic spirit has vanished.”

Lai’s supporters are firmly convinced of this reasoning.

Expert: 60 percent unhappy about the break-down of cross-strait exchanges

The survey results also show that voters do not want the government to focus solely on either cross-strait ties or Taiwan’s international profile.

When asked which of the two options - international diplomacy or cross-strait exchanges - should be awarded greater importance in government, 43.7 percent of the respondents said that both are equally important, whereas about one third felt that international diplomacy is more important, and just 20 percent want cross-strait relations to be given priority.

There is a clear correlation between political leanings and priority choices. DPP supporters overwhelmingly attach importance to international diplomacy, whereas KMT supporters value cross-strait exchanges. The younger the respondents are, however, the higher the ratio of those who deem both goals equally important.

Polling expert Dai Li-an says that if the 43.7 percent who support both options are factored in, overall 75 percent of the respondents consider international relations as important, while over 60 percent support cross-strait exchanges. He says that this indicates that a strong majority is not happy about the interruption of cross-strait exchanges under the DPP administration.

Compared to the clear difference in the approaches of the blue and green camps, TPP Chairman Ko is trying to position himself in the center of the political spectrum. His proposal to “turn Taiwan into a bridge between the United States and China” resonates with parts of the electorate.

A growing number of young people want Taiwan to chart a third way regarding foreign affairs. Mr. Tang, a 27-year-old delivery worker, has never subscribed to the view that Taiwan belongs to China, and used to vote for the DPP in the past. Recently, however, he has become a die-hard TPP supporter.

The main reason for his switching allegiance is his unease over the DPP’s pro- independence platform. “China has already gained so much strength that Taiwan is not able to resist on its own,” says Tang. He believes that Ko’s proposal to maintain good relations with Washington while trying to open dialogue with China is the best way to protect Taiwan’s safety.

Shrinking Market for “92 Consensus”

Although 60 percent of the respondents approve of exchanges with China, this does not mean that they accept the so-called “92 Consensus” which Beijing has made a precondition for talks. The consensus, reached between semi-official organizations from both sides in 1992, when the KMT ruled Taiwan, is based on an understanding that there is only one China although both sides define China differently.

For many years, the Taiwan Affairs Office has repeatedly stressed that the 92 Consensus is the basis for negotiations with Taiwan. But the survey results show that only 30.4 percent of respondents agree with the statement “By recognizing the 92 Consensus, the Republic of China can be protected.” Among voters under 39 years of age, an even lower ratio of 24 percent subscribes to this view.

Across the spectrum of Taiwan’s major political parties, only KMT supporters accept the 92 Consensus. New Taipei City Mayor and KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih has therefore declared that he supports “a 92 Consensus that conforms with the Constitution [of the Republic of China].”

The other presidential hopefuls have come up with different approaches to shun this hot potato issue. Terry Gou, founder and former chief executive officer of Hon Hai Technology Group (Foxconn), has been accusing the DPP administration of pushing cross-strait relations to the brink of war. However, since declaring in late August that he will join the presidential race as an
independent candidate, he has not said anything about the 92 Consensus.

Instead, he has come up with a “Kinmen Peace Initiative” based on “one China, with each side having its own interpretation.” In a recent speech before the European Chamber of Commerce in Taiwan, Gou reiterated the importance of peace and stability for investors. He also promised to form a negotiation team including members from different political parties, with the aim of restarting dialogue and exchanges with China on cross-strait peace.

It is evident that the segment of Taiwanese voters who buy into the “92 Consensus” is shrinking. “People who hope for better cross-strait relations do not necessarily regard the 92 Consensus as a solution,” says Hsiao Yi-ching, political science professor at National Chengchi University.

Foxconn founder Terry Gou. (Source: Ming-Tang Huang)

It deserves to be mentioned that only half those who worry about a possible war agree with the statement that the acceptance of the 92 Consensus can protect the Republic of China.

What also deserves attention is the fact that the once entrenched ideological division over unification versus independence is unraveling.

It is the middle-of-the-road voters who will decide the election outcome.

Domestic issues more important than cross-strait ties

In the upcoming election, voter behavior can no longer be judged based on allegiance to the blue or green political camps, says Meng Chih-cheng, associate professor at the Department of Political Science of National Cheng Kung University. After more than 30 years of democratization, Taiwan has nurtured a considerable number of voters who are “skeptical about democracy.”

Meng says these voters are not beholden to any ideology. And even if the incumbent government is not doing a bad job, they advocate a change of government to prevent corruption. This also explains why more than half of voters hope for a change of government but will not necessarily vote for the largest opposition party. Rather, they set their hopes on a third political force.

“Anyone who wants to gain the support of this group of voters must do more than just criticize the government; they must propose concrete projects,” says Meng.

What do voters expect from the next leader? In the survey, people were asked which issues the next president should make their priority. Most respondents named economic development as the top priority, followed in declining order by national security, cross-strait relations, the wealth gap, and partisan wrestling.

Not surprisingly, more than 30 percent of DPP supporters cite “national security” as the top priority, whereas KMT sympathizers believe that cross-strait relations should take precedence over other issues.

Both groups put economic development in second place on their priority lists.

Supporters of third force TPP have diverse opinions as to what should be made top priority. Aside from economic development, they also named cross-strait relations, the wealth gap, partisan wrestling, and energy transition, while putting national security only in sixth place.

Voters who do not lean toward any political party, about 35 percent of the respondents, have similar hopes for national development as TPP supporters, particularly when it comes to domestic policy.

For people under 39, the economy and the wealth gap are the most pressing issues.

However, as Professor Chiu points out, Taiwan’s domestic policy is always influenced by geopolitical considerations. He believes that the opposition candidates must also present a convincing foreign policy, or else voters seeking “predictability” might choose to support the incumbent party.

“Honestly, I don’t feel that the DPP is doing a lot for fishermen. But for the sake of democracy, I will continue to support Lai Ching-te,” professes fishing boat owner Chen Wen-sheng. Chen is not happy with the government’s handling of domestic affairs. But after Russia attacked Ukraine, he realized that small nations cannot prevent aggression by making concessions and compromises. Chen says he is putting his personal interests aside because he does not want Taiwan to be ruled by a totalitarian country.

“I am now letting off steam every day saying where Tsai Ing-wen is not doing a good job, and the president should thank me for that. But if we were ruled by the Chinese Communists, I and the next generation would certainly not have this kind of freedom,” says Chen, who is about to become a grandfather.

Kuo Ya-hui, spokeswoman for Lai’s campaign office, believes that Lai’s strengths are his long career in national politics, his familiarity with policy, and a systemic approach to running the country.

The survey results show that voters attach importance to domestic affairs. But with the presidential election around the corner, changes in the international situation and in cross-strait relations ultimately become key factors again. This becomes evident if we take a look at the CommonWealth Magazine's 2022 State of the Nation Survey. Back then, in early 2022, only 37.7 percent of the respondents believed that China will try to take Taiwan by force. Now 46 percent are concerned that war could break out in the Taiwan Strait.

The election has implications for Taiwan’s future. The different political identities are probably not very likely to converge. But the fact that different opinions can exist side by side is proof that Taiwanese society keeps striving to build a fair and equitable social order through a democratic system.

These are the values Taiwan should safeguard most.

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Have you read?

• TaiwanVotes2024: Meet the candidates 
• A decade later, the Ko Wen-je whirlwind is back
• CommonWealth's 2023 Poll: Smaller cities lead in local leadership approval

Translated by Susanne Ganz
Edited by TC Lin
Uploaded by Ian Huang