After drawn-out negotiations, a potential “Blue-White alliance” officially broke down at the deadline for presidential candidate registration. On the morning of November 24, Taiwan People’s Party (TPP, represented by the color white) Chairman Ko Wen-je, accompanied by running mate Cynthia Wu, registered his candidacy at the Central Election Commission in Taipei. Meanwhile, Kuomintang (KMT, represented by the color blue) nominee Hou You-yi, accompanied by running mate Jaw Shaw-kong, registered separately at the CEC, throwing down the gauntlet against the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) ticket of William Lai and Hsiao Bi-khim, who had registered previously on November 21.

Why did negotiations concerning a Blue and White alliance ultimately break down at the last minute?

The chief reason is that both sides failed to reach a consensus on a six-point agreement on determining presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

Hou You-yi insisted that the foundation of negotiations should return to the six-point agreement inked by both sides at former president Ma Ying-jeou’s foundation on November 15. Hou called for Ko to stand by his commitment to complete their agreement to help bring about the turnover of ruling parties anticipated by mainstream public opinion.

Ko Wen-je stresses that he personally abided by the six-point agreement all along, but that the two sides disagreed on a method for tallying public opinion polls. He expressed that there was no sense in bickering for a week without a resolution and that resolving the issue required turning the page and moving on. Ko also held that answering the public’s desire for a transition to a different ruling party meant forming a formidable victory coalition. Hence, a so-called opposition party coalition meant more than just a Blue-White alliance but uniting all possible forces together.

Ko Wen-je and Hsin-Ying Wu, TPP's presidential election candidates. (Photo: Ming-Tang Huang)

Potential souring of Blue-White relations?

“Arguments are a catalyst for a tectonic shift from ambiguity to clarity,” offers Du Sheng-Tsung, assistant professor and department chair of the Department of Radio and TV at Ming Chuan University. After drawn-out negotiations, Hou You-yi and Ko Wen-je’s supporters would be drawn closer together, and the Blue camp’s calculations would consider Ko as interested only in “playing with other people’s money.” Meanwhile, Ko Wen-je’s staunch supporters would see Hou You-yi clearly behind in the polls, yet swallowing up the smaller party with his large party.

After supporters of both sides fell back into line, the anti-Green forces, whose lines had been blurred, would become clearly delineated Blue and White political factions, to form a true three-way race.

Tunghai University political science professor, Shen Yu-chung, estimates that the impact of the breakdown in Blue-White negotiations on the KMT is minimal, while it will certainly hurt Ko Wen-je. By enlisting Han Kuo-yu up as first in line for legislator-at-large seats in the upcoming election, and Jaw Shao-kong as his vice-presidential running mate, Hou You-yi helped shore up the KMT’s position while lowering the possibility of voters defecting from one opposition candidate to another, and at the same time safeguarding a certain number of seats in the national congress.

In contrast, the past month of intensive negotiations has left young and midline voters disappointed, not only impacting support in the upcoming presidential election but likely reducing the number of legislator-at-large seats that were estimated to be as many as 10. Looking ahead, it remains to be seen what sort of issues the savvy communicator Ko Wen-je tosses out to reconnect with median voters.

Hou Yu-ih (left), and Jaw Shaw-Kong (right). (Photo: Ming-Tang Huang)

Will voters bail? What are the keys to success?

Shen Yu-chung reckons that a three-way race favors the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), although the Lai-Hsiao ticket saw reduced exposure in the heat of the Blue-White negotiations. Consequently, the DPP

The key to victory between the Blue and White is which camp can gain a lead of 10 percent or more in polling at the last moment, proving that the third-place contestant has no chance, thus sweeping up non-Green votes and “passing on the turn.” Consequently, the Blue and White camps could conceivably refrain from mutual attacks, rather taking each other on head to head, such as Ko Wen-je’s November 23 description of Hou You-yi as “looking for a nanny,” implying doubt about Hou’s ability to govern the country.

Du Sheng-Tsung relates that when a political map characterized by “one big (Green) and two medium (Blue, White) parties is formed, the key determinant of election outcomes is whether non-Green voters automatically take part in a “soft defection” in the final stage of the campaign, concentrating their votes on the candidate with the best chance to defeat William Lai. If such a soft defection takes place, then William Lai has a very high chance of getting elected.

Du reckons that the key to a soft defection taking place is whether one of the three camps makes a major mistake or creates some sort of controversy about morality or character. If the DPP administration and Lai-Hsiao ticket makes a mistake, it could raise antipathy among non-Green voters, quite likely activating a defection. Or a negative event that either Hou or Ko’s camp is unable to smooth over could also cause supporters to flow over to the other camp, impacting the election outcome.

Could Blue and White align over legislative elections?

Du believes that there is still a chance that a Blue-White alliance could continue at the legislative level, as both camps still hold out hope for winning over the other’s voters without a complete falling out during the campaign. If they are unable to bring about a change in ruling parties next year, both minority parties must still work together to oversee the administration, and whether they can command over half the seats in congress together has tactical significance.

Shen also takes a positive view, noting that since the Blue and White camps must take on DPP candidates together in most election districts, their legislative candidates should not be expected to have their own falling outs.

With this in mind, upon completing his registration, Ko remarked that, although the KMT and TPP were unable to come to an agreement on the presidential election, there is still room for effort on many levels. In particular, there is the battlefield of the Legislative Yuan and the speaker, which Ko stresses the two sides “must cooperate over.”