Why were there no losers in this election? Nojima Tsuyoshi believes that in the presidential and legislative elections, all three political parties benefited, with no losers or winners. "This is the wisdom shown by the Taiwanese people through their votes, not overly relying on the United States to become pawns, nor provoking China," he said in an interview.

In the presidential election, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) narrowly won, achieving its goal of continuing to govern; the Kuomintang (KMT) significantly increased its legislative seats, becoming the most influential party in the parliament; the People's Party and Ko Wen-je also accumulated strength, becoming a crucial minority in the parliament.

DPP has not acquired half of the seats in the Legislative Yuan means it will be difficult for Lai Ching-Te to govern in the next four years. (Photo: Chien-Tong Wang)

For the United States, the victory of Lai in the presidential election indicates that the Taiwanese people still trust the DPP's direction. For China, the opposition groups gaining significant seats in the parliament is also good news.

Three parties enter game overtime

Nojima believes that for Xi Jinping, this election should be the best result in dealing with Taiwan since he took office in 2012. After Xi took office, he faced obstacles in the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement, and despite the Ma-Xi meeting, the KMT suffered a major defeat shortly afterward. In the past eight years, both the DPP president and parliament have been in complete control. This time, although the opposition parties did not win the presidency, they made substantial gains in the parliament.

Nojima believes the next four years will be very difficult for Lai, compared with the eight years of complete governance under the Tsai Ing-wen government. "This election result is just the beginning; the three parties are entering a four-year extended game," he predicts.

This result accumulated enough momentum for Ko, preparing for the 2028 presidential election. With the KMT becoming the largest party in the Legislative Yuan and the DPP holding the executive power, the competition between the three will continue over the next four years.

The result of the 2024 election has allowed Ko to accumulate enough momentum to prepare for the 2028 election. (Photo: Pei-Yin Hsieh)

Ko Wen-je is the biggest dark horse

Nojima believes that although the apparent protagonist of this election is the victorious Lai, Ko Wen-je is actually the invisible protagonist who disrupted the entire election because his actions are unpredictable and can always disrupt the election's rhythm.

For example, after the blue-green alliance broke, it was expected that the People's Party would be marginalized, but the abandonment of the presidential bid never happened, and in the end, the votes exceeded everyone's expectations, changing the ceiling of Taiwan's third force, which is a very worthwhile and meaningful breakthrough.

However, compared to the presidential vote and party vote counts, both Lai and Ko have disparities, with high presidential votes and low party votes.

Nojima observes that this is a shift in the voting habits of the Taiwanese people, especially the young generation, who do not have strong color preferences and have more diverse choices. In addition, in this election, the DPP, which was favored by young voters in the past, is becoming more conservative, "seeming more and more like the KMT," he said.

Discrepancies between international media's perception of Taiwan and local perspectives

Nojima also mentioned that this election is not only important to East Asian countries but also garnered the most attention from international journalists in Taiwan's election ever, indicating that the global community cares about this result a lot.

In recent years, Taiwan's international status has risen, and Lai's election makes the United States, Japan, and even Southeast Asian countries more optimistic. The diplomatic, defense, and cross-strait policies are not expected to change much, and it is worth observing how Tsai Ing-wen's "Republic of China Taiwan" line will continue.

However, from the election results, "the issues that Taiwanese people care about seem to be different from the international media," he said.

After the Sunflower Movement in 2014, the DPP won several elections in a row. The 2016 election continued the controversy over the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement, and the 2020 election encountered the anti-extradition bill protests, but the cross-strait issues did not play a significant role in this election.

In terms of defense, diplomacy, and cross-strait policies, the international community seems to favor the DPP, but in Taiwanese society, there are many issues that international media do not see but are more important to the people, such as the widening wealth gap, housing prices, energy transition, transportation, and other livelihood issues. Under the complete governance of the DPP, many controversies remain unresolved, and voices of dissatisfaction in local areas have led to a sharp reduction in regional legislative seats.

As the three-party competition enters overtime, Nojima reminds that Japan lacks communication channels and understanding with the KMT and the TPP. He states that for Japan, Lai is a familiar figure, and the relationship and communication channels between the DPP and Japan have always been close. In the future, when facing China, the two countries can continue to stand together. However, the other two parties seem to lack policy staff for Japan.

Regarding the KMT's failures in the presidential election for three consecutive terms, Nojima believes that this time, even if the KMT wanted to distance itself from China, it could not win. Even though the KMT might have been able to break through in local and legislative elections, it will continue to face difficulties in presidential elections.

Have you read?

• Challenges ahead for DPP’s third term
• William Lai: Not just “Tsai Ing-Wen 2.0”
• Walking a tightrope on Taiwan-U.S. relations: Interview with Hsiao Bi-khim

Uploaded by Ian Huang