Few presidential visits to China have been as laden with expectations and uncertainty as the one Donald Trump is undertaking in Beijing on May 14 and 15. 

The two leaders’ last meeting was last October in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit. That meeting, which both presented as a success, was only to buy time for both sides. For Trump, it was all about trying to build an autonomous production chain for rare earth elements, and other critical minerals, almost entirely controlled by China now, and whose disruption could paralyze entire sectors of the American economy, including its military capabilities. 

In return, Beijing obtained something very concrete: the partial lifting of export controls on high-performance processors for AI, which China needs to increase its computing capacity so as not to fall behind in the race for dominance in AI. Therefore, the agreement reached was tactical, not strategic, only postponing the problems but not resolving them. Additionally, the most consequential issue- the future of Taiwan - was put on hold, but with some good news for China: the next summit would be held in Beijing, and soon.

Although the summit has faced moments of uncertainty, beginning with the one-month delay announced by Trump after he launched his attack on Iran, all indications show that the Chinese government is eagerly anticipating it, making it very clear that Taiwan will be the main topic of discussion this time. Beijing has turned the visit into an opportunity it does not intend to waste, and with good reasons. From the perspective of the Communist Party, the Chinese capital is the natural setting to address what it considers an internal, inalienable, and indisputable matter: reunification with the island.

The international context also works in Beijing's favor. 

Trump's adventures- and sometimes misadventures - in other arenas have set a precedent, which China is keen to observe and note down for future use if needed. Against such a backdrop, China has opted for a calculated containment strategy based on tough rhetoric, public rejection of US hegemony and yet without crossing the red lines that Washington has drawn, particularly regarding arms supplies to Iran. If anyone wonders why China hasn't taken advantage of the US entanglement in the Strait of Hormuz to exert more pressure in the Indo-Pacific, the answer lies precisely in Taiwan. Beijing is saving its ammunition for a larger negotiation and hopes that negotiation will happen now.

The signs came before Air Force One even took off. Last September, the White House rejected a $400 million military aid package for Taiwan. Additionally, last December, Washington announced the largest arms sale in its history to the island: an $11 billion -the largest to date and technologically most sophisticated- weapons package. While the deal was notified to Congress, its implementation remains shrouded in uncertainty as the summit approaches. In February, Trump publicly acknowledged having consulted with Xi Jinping about arms sales to Taiwan, deciding to wait until after the summit to proceed. Doubts about how much of that arsenal will ultimately reach the island have multiplied since then.

Trump arrives in Beijing in an extraordinarily weak negotiating position for a president who has made strength his trademark. Mired in Iran, without the support of his European allies in that conflict, and with a domestic economy suffering from the tariffs he himself imposed and which the Supreme Court has blocked, Trump needs a deal he can sell as a victory at home, especially before the November elections. Xi Jinping, who has neither elections nor free press to complicate matters, can afford to wait. And in diplomacy, time is power.

What's at stake goes far beyond the press releases that will emerge from this summit. The Taiwan Strait isn't an abstract problem: it's the artery through which flows the most critical resource of the latest technological revolution, AI. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) manufactures more than 90% of the world's advanced semiconductors, those that power AI data centers, next-generation weapons systems, and the digital infrastructure of Western democracies. A crisis in the strait, or even the credible threat, would have a comparable or even greater impact on the global economy than the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Only, instead of oil, what would cease to flow are the chips that drive the technological revolution of our time.

Trump arrives in Beijing with no cards on his side. Or, more precisely, he arrives having already played some of his best cards before even sitting down at the table. What he negotiates in the coming days with Xi Jinping will determine not only the future of an island of 23 million people, but also the technological and military balance of power for decades to come.