The following is the transcript of the 8th episode of the Taiwanology podcast. It was produced by CommonWealth Magazine, hosted by Kwangyin Liu, and was first aired Aug. 8, 2023.  

Listen to the episode:【Taiwanology Ep.8】Can Taiwan be the bridge between China and the US?

Taiwan is a dynamic and significant island nation that has garnered attention due to its complex relationship with China. The Chinese government asserts its sovereignty over Taiwan, while Taiwan is recognized for its achievements and attributes. It houses TSMC, a global leader in advanced semiconductor production, showcasing its technological prowess. Additionally, Taiwan stands out as a democracy that made history as the first Asian country to legalize same-sex marriage.

Outside of Taiwan, prevailing international perceptions often center around the potential for conflict due to the contentious relationship between Taiwan and China. However, these impressions might be overly pessimistic. While tensions exist, the idea that war is imminent may not accurately reflect the current situation. People sometimes express a desire to visit Taiwan before a hypothetical conflict, anticipating military exercises, yet these fears might be exaggerated. In this podcast episode, the focus shifts from the prevailing narrow perspective of conflict to explore alternative ways of viewing Taiwan. The guest aims to challenge the dominant narrative and highlight the impact of this focus on Taiwan's economy and global interactions.

By broadening the discussion, this episode of the Taiwanology podcast seeks to present a more nuanced understanding of Taiwan's multifaceted identity beyond the prism of potential conflict. It delves into various dimensions, including Taiwan's technological achievements, its democratic values, and its unique position in international affairs. The goal is to foster a richer appreciation of Taiwan's complexity and encourage conversations that move beyond the confines of war and geopolitical risk, ultimately offering a fresh perspective on this vital global player.

Joining  us here is Dr. George Yin. He taught foreign policy at Swarthmore and Dartmouth. And he's also now a distinguished research fellow at National Taiwan University's Center for China Studies. He is also a research associate at Fairbank Center at Harvard. As former Harvard classmates, George had published with Rush Doshi, who is now the deputy senior director for China and Taiwan at Biden's National Security Council.

And George has lived in many places, among which mainland China, the UK and the US, which has provided him with a unique perspective on international politics.

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George Yin: Thank you for inviting me. I've lived in a lot of different places, but I always think of Taiwan as my motherland.

And my childhood memory of rice paddies in Taiwan is my image of hometown. My family is originally from Yilan. And of course, very rural. There is a phrase in Yilan, which is 好山好水好無聊, beautiful mountains, beautiful sea, but very boring.

Kwangyin Liu: Since we're talking about childhood, tell us about you. So how come you were born in Taiwan, you grew up in Taiwan, and what brought you to China, US and UK? 

Yin: I was in China for a while, because my parents were in China as Taishang, Taiwanese business people. And after my finishing up high school, in Shanghai, I moved to America and just stayed for school, except for one year in the UK. 

Why did you choose to study foreign policy and political economy?

To be honest, it was actually a compromise as I wanted to study philosophy and history when I was in college. But my parents told me that if I dared to do that, they'd make sure that I starve to death, and I know they tend to make credible threats. They are the Asian tiger parents. 

So what I compromised on is political science and economics. And I really love the two subjects and stuck to them ever since.

What's your study subject?

Yin: I mostly work on security studies, or the study of war, peace and diplomacy in international relations. And sometimes I take a political economy angle to studying these issues too. For instance, how do economic considerations affect people's view of foreign security policy? 

Liu: So, since you study war and peace, you must be quite busy recently as a scholar from Taiwan, with all the attention coming from various think tanks and businesses. You're currently living in the US. What kind of questions have you been receiving lately from people? 

Yin: Most of them are about the possibility of war and China's potential invasion. What preparations are being made for a potential Chinese invasion? These are the usual topics.

And when I talk to my foreign friends and foreign experts who have visited Taiwan, I tend to emphasize that while the situation is tense, if we make the right choices, we can avoid a conflict with China.

It's crucial not to solely focus on war but also to consider the potential for peace. Nevertheless, we need to recognize that war and peace are closely connected, almost like two sides of the same coin. We need to explain how and when wars occur and how we can maintain peace simultaneously.

Liu: As a reporter in Taiwan, almost every month, if not every week, international journalists or think tank representatives visit Taiwan. Their first question is often the same as the one you mentioned – when might war break out, and how should we respond if it does?

Before the pandemic, we didn't receive much international media attention, but now the spotlight is on these matters. Why do you think this has changed?

Yin: There seem to be a few factors at play. For both foreign policymakers and the general public, there's heightened concern about China's rise, particularly among policymakers.

One reason behind this increased focus on Taiwan is linked to the Russo-Ukraine conflict. Russia's unexpected invasion of Ukraine caught many by surprise. No one anticipated Russia taking such irrational action, yet it happened. This event made people speculate – if Putin, an autocratic leader, could act in such a way, might Xi Jinping, who also holds considerable power, potentially act irrationally as well? If so, Taiwan might become the target.

The Russo-Ukraine conflict is undoubtedly one of the factors driving greater attention to Taiwan. However, even before that, there was a general unease about China's ascent.

How should the US and Europe handle China's rise? China's growing power is accompanied by its distinct political system and culture. This rise is unique in modern history, as it involves a new major power emerging with a culture, history, and language vastly different from the previous dominant hegemon, the US in this case.

Liu: Right. When we look at the First and Second World Wars, the major belligerents were primarily Western nations with some shared history. Even Russia had shared history to some extent. However, China stands out as a very different country with an unfamiliar language and culture, leading to heightened anxiety.

Yin: Indeed, one could argue that Japan has also wielded considerable power. However, Japan never reached the level of influence China has attained in recent years. There's a deep-rooted unease surrounding China because of its exceptional and complex nature.

Liu: I suppose this is where the concept of the Thucydides Trap comes into play. Nevertheless, many individuals are genuinely anxious about this situation. I was listening to an economist podcast that suggested Chinese policymakers and intellectuals believe the West is deliberately hindering China's rise, prompting China to resist and fight back. What's your perspective on this sentiment?

Yin: Another significant issue heightening global anxiety about China's rise is the lack of awareness among Chinese policymakers and the public about Western sentiments and perspectives. This disconnect may stem from the substantial differences between China and the West. We're witnessing a clash of civilizations between East and West.

Given these cultural disparities and relative unfamiliarity with Western democratic systems, China could make misjudgments when assessing the West. It's not accurate to say most people in the US aim to halt China's rise; rather, they are concerned about it. Policy makers and analysts at think tanks, in my conversations, acknowledge that preventing China's rise is unrealistic and not the wisest approach. Instead, the focus should be on ensuring China becomes a responsible stakeholder within the existing international order. The goal isn't to hinder China's rise, which would trigger negative reactions. 

Furthermore, it's crucial for China to adopt an unbiased and objective viewpoint of the world. Otherwise, the narrative of China as a malevolent entity could gain traction globally, which isn't productive.

Liu: I completely agree. Joseph Kahn, Chief Editor of the New York Times, also expressed concern about the situation. New York Times correspondents in China are currently outside the country due to visa restrictions. Kahn worries that the information he receives about China might be biased since most correspondents are stationed outside China, some in Taiwan and others in Korea. It's challenging to accurately gauge the situation on the ground in China. Having more international correspondents operating in China could benefit China.

Read: New York Times editor Joseph Kahn: China is not just a threat

Yin: I'm not suggesting that China hasn't engaged in troubling actions, such as in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. However, it's crucial to assess China objectively. About 15 years ago, many analysts in the West held an overly optimistic view, believing that economic development and trade would eventually lead to a less repressive and aggressive Chinese regime. That belief has proven to be wishful thinking.

Yet, this doesn't mean we should adopt an overly negative view of China as the villain. That approach isn't the most accurate way to perceive China. I appreciate your mention of the interview with the New York Times editor. It's a real concern right now – Western individuals find it increasingly challenging to enter China, and the same applies to Chinese individuals entering the West. This information asymmetry could lead to misunderstandings.

In this context, Taiwan could play a significant role. We could serve as both a frontline and a bridge in the Sino-US competition. While it won't be easy, there's potential for Taiwan to shape US-China relations.

Liu: I prefer the idea of a bridge over terms like "frontier," "pawn," or "chess piece." Indeed, many have used those metaphors.

Liu: Previously, we discussed how there has been a pendulum swing in Western countries' attitudes towards China. Initially, they were overly optimistic, thinking that through economic collaboration, China would transition into a democratic and open country that embraces rule-based order. 

However, there's now a shift towards viewing China as a potential threat. In reality, the situation lies somewhere in between, right?

Yin: Yes, it's indeed challenging to characterize Taiwan in a straightforward manner. Is Taiwan anti-China? It's not easy to provide a definitive answer to that question. This complexity also applies to both China and the US. Along similar lines, the narrative that the US is exploiting Taiwan and that Taiwan is a mere pawn in US geopolitics is an oversimplification. When analyzing foreign policy and international relations, it's tempting to seek simple explanations. However, the reality of international politics is intricate, considering the involvement of numerous countries with their own domestic divisions, interests, and capabilities. Anyone claiming to offer a simple answer likely has an agenda.

Liu: I agree with you. I've always believed that the simplest answers are rarely the correct ones. So, this leads me to another question. As you mentioned earlier, when people search for images of Taiwan, they often see soldiers and tanks, giving the impression that the entire island is preparing for war. This raises questions, especially from think tank experts in Europe. They wonder why Taiwanese people aren't nervous about the possibility of war with China. How would you address that question?

Yin: One way to respond might be to say that Taiwanese people are calm and rational, accustomed to dealing with China, hence the lack of immediate concern. However, the mindset of the Taiwanese public regarding war with China is intriguing. While some worry exists, this is particularly noticeable within the business community, based on my experiences.

Yet, simultaneously, while there is concern, people also have the perspective that if they can't change the situation, they might as well enjoy life. Taiwan offers bubble tea, mango shaved ice, and soup dumplings. Given the uncertainty, people focus on enjoying life while they can.

Importantly, Taiwanese political leaders need to step up their leadership and explain to the public what's happening and what actions are possible. This aspect is lacking in Taiwan's discourse.

Liu: Some individuals in Taiwan adopt a hawkish stance, continuously discussing war and criticizing China. This approach might be counterproductive because it could deter foreign investment. It's a mismatch to talk about conflict while also wanting foreign businesses to invest in Taiwan. How can we encourage investment when we're emphasizing war?

Yin: I want to highlight that being overly hawkish isn't productive, and on the other hand, having an overly optimistic view about China isn't wise either. China's current regime is a dictatorship, making it difficult to predict its actions due to its concentration of power under Xi Jinping.

So, the balance lies in being vigilant without demonizing China. Achieving this equilibrium is challenging. Similarly, we want the world to recognize Taiwan's importance and contribute to regional peace and prosperity. It's necessary to inform other nations about Taiwan's precarious geopolitical situation, but this approach mustn't adversely affect Taiwan's economic prospects.

In this context, it might be time to contemplate a shift in Taiwan's approach. If it's already understood that Taiwan's importance is significant and that a Chinese invasion would be disastrous, the next step could involve reassuring everyone that war isn't inevitable. Encouraging foreign businesses to invest in Taiwan is crucial for Taiwan's medium to long-term prospects because a strong economy is essential for defense.

Liu: Speaking of the economy, I often encounter questions from international think tank experts, particularly those unfamiliar with Taiwan. They're astonished to discover the extent of economic interactions between Taiwan and mainland China, as well as Hong Kong. Roughly 40% of Taiwan's exports are directed toward China and Hong Kong, while the US accounts for only around 15%. People struggle to reconcile this with the perception of China as a threat. How can we explain this situation?

Yin: One way to approach this is to consider that politically and in terms of identity politics, there are clear conflicts and differing opinions between Taiwan, China, and the West. However, on the economic front, matters are less straightforward. A significant portion of Taiwan's trade surplus arises from its trade with China. This is a reality that needs acknowledgment.

Interestingly, from China's perspective, it's cautious about making Taiwan excessively prosperous due to its own agenda. Wealthier Taiwan means more resources potentially devoted to defense. Nevertheless, the statistics mentioned earlier emphasize how China remains somewhat reliant on Taiwan economically. This creates incentives for Beijing to ensure the Taiwan situation doesn't escalate out of control.

Liu: Some people incessantly discuss war, while others in Taiwan emphasize peace. However, there must be a more nuanced approach. How can we contribute to dialogue and alternative methods for addressing China's geopolitical risks?

Yin: Returning to the notion of Taiwan serving as a bridge between China and the US, this entails communication, negotiation, and diplomacy in the geopolitical context. Often, our discussions about Taiwan's situation focus on either war or peace and overlook the diplomatic aspect. Diplomacy is essential for two reasons.

First, effective communication and negotiation with China could lead to mutually beneficial understandings that mitigate conflict. I'm not claiming this negotiation is easy or guaranteed to succeed, but it's a scenario that should be considered and pursued.

Second, peace is vital, but not at any cost. Similarly, during World War II, the West and the Republic of China didn't surrender to Japanese imperial or Nazi influences. Therefore, we seek peace without compromising core values. Diplomacy can help shape a peaceful landscape without resorting to war.

Regarding diplomacy, China insists on the "1992 Consensus" and refuses official communication channels with Taiwan unless this consensus is accepted. While China and Taiwan have shared interests, especially in business, trade, and finance, there's room for contemplation about establishing a new political foundation for cross-strait exchange. This would be challenging but not entirely impossible, and it should be a topic for think tanks and political debate in Taiwan.

Liu: This is a critical foundation, considering the shared interests between China, Taiwan, and Western economies. Collaboration is crucial, particularly at a time when economies are struggling, including China's. Collaboration is necessary to address global challenges like climate change, and China's involvement is indispensable.

The issue of an intellectual deficit is worth discussing as well. Due to the limited presence of international correspondents in China, information on both sides tends to be biased. In Taiwan, interest in reading about China is declining. Writing about Chinese economy or society often receives low page views. 

How can we bridge this intellectual gap regarding China in the US and Taiwan?

Yin: Addressing the intellectual deficit regarding China in the US could involve facilitating and encouraging more exchanges between Chinese and American individuals across all levels, including scholars, students, and think tanks, with a genuine and unbiased approach. However, the current anti-espionage laws in China create challenges for American visits.

As for Taiwan, a shortcoming in discussions about China is failing to connect cross-strait relations with Sino-American relations and broader international dynamics. In modern times, discussing Taiwan-China relations without acknowledging the US or other global powers is insufficient. Taiwan must place China in an international context, recognizing that China's influence extends beyond Asia. China is an important global power now. China is not just an Asian power anymore.