U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan touched a nerve in Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, D.C. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLC) has launched a quasi-blockade exercise in waters off Taiwan under the guise of conducting live-fire military drills. One U.S. think tank has gone so far as to term this a possible “Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis”.

However, military expert Michael JF Chang (張榮豐), Chairman of Taiwan Tactical Simulation Association, who was commissioned by the government to assemble a team of strategists to formulate contingency plans during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996, has a different take on the situation: “Things are different this time around.”

In 1996, the PLA conducted military exercises as a response to then-President Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the United States, as well as Taiwan’s first direct presidential election. The PLA’s Second Artillery Corps and units from the Nanjing Military Region fired missiles into waters around Keelung and Kaohsiung. Amphibious landing drills were also carried out. In response, the U.S. Navy sailed two carrier strike groups through the Taiwan Strait. The world seemed poised on the brink of war.

According to Chang, war was averted at the time because cross-strait relations are part of a “Nash equilibrium” involving China, Taiwan, and the United States. Because all three sides are limited in their options by the possible responses of the two other players, the status quo has never strayed far from the equilibrium point.

A great deal has changed since 1996

Can the stalemate be broken? Chang says this will only be possible if one side falls behind in military strength to the point that it is no longer able to make a counterplay against its opponents’ actions. Only then will the equilibrium shift and allow new dynamics to emerge.

Regarding the current situation, Chang says: “My instinct is that the equilibrium point has changed.” In 1996, despite all the fiery rhetoric, Chinese warplanes stayed on their side of the median line, and missiles never came close to Taiwan’s main island. But during the military drills of 2022, PLA assets entered Taiwan’s air and sea space. It’s a sign that China’s military might has come a long way during the last quarter century.

The overlaps of Taiwan's territorial waters and Chinese military drill (Source: CommonWealth Magazine)

Of course, the American military is still a force to be reckoned with. Although there are claims that the U.S. is in decline, the fact of the matter is that the Americans still lead the world in military technology. To use aircraft carriers as an example, some important points of comparison are capacity, missile defense systems, and striking range. An American carrier can house over 90 fighter planes and has a striking range of over 400 kilometers. China’s Shandong and Liaoning carriers cannot even begin to compare. Beijing is still a long way from being able to challenge Washington directly.

Taiwan’s own military force has also been growing. Not only has the Taiwanese military added surface-to-surface missiles and cruise missiles to its arsenal, it is now in possession of hypersonic anti-ship missiles. None of these pieces were in play in 1996. “China is growing in strength, but the U.S. is stronger, and Taiwan has not been idle,” says Chang. Changes in the Nash equilibrium are a matter for in-depth geopolitical analyses; but in short, Taiwan needs to prepare for the war it wishes to avoid. “Peace has never been cheap.”

Movement of Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group is key 

Chang recalls that in 1996, Taiwan was not in a favorable position. Although diplomats worked behind the scenes to ensure that Chinese missile drills did not lead to irreversible escalation, Chang says, “Taiwan could not let down its guard, whatever Beijing promised.” At the time, the calculus was that China was conducting psychological warfare to try to influence Taiwan’s first direct presidential election. Even so, an invasion of Taiwan’s outer islands was not ruled out, which was why armed forces on those islands were placed on high alert.

In the present day, armed forces and other military assets have been brought up to full readiness on Taiwan’s outer islands of Kinmen and Matsu. Government funds have been injected into the stock market and the foreign exchange market. Commodities have been stockpiled. “Since November of 1995, we have been perfecting our contingency plans. We have no illusions about relying on the kindness of our adversaries,” says Chang. After all, empty promises are the most common type of cheaply purchased “peace”.

In the wake of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Beijing has already made the first move. Taipei has opted to keep its head down. The ball is in the United States’ court. According to Chang, the key thing to observe is whether the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group, currently stationed in the Bashi Channel, retreats or holds position after Pelosi departs from Taiwan. It will be a good indicator of what Washington plans to do next.

The end result may not be a loss for Taiwan. Chang points out that, although China has said the question of Taiwan concerns its “core interests” and may not be challenged, the same could be said of America’s position on the matter.

A glance at satellite images shows a clear route from the Western Pacific through the Bashi Channel into the South China Sea, and then through the Strait of Malacca near Singapore and the Indian Ocean to the Middle East—this is the United States’ “lifeline of oil shipments”. Taiwan holds the choke point of this vital shipping route. It is also America’s gateway into the Indian Ocean. For this reason, the White House has announced its Indo-Pacific Strategy, even as Chinese forces encroach on parts of the South China Sea.

If Taiwan and China are “unified”, the U.S.’s route from the Western Pacific to the Indian Ocean will have to go through the Lombak Strait near Indonesia. That will certainly hike up insurance and shipping fees. Oil tankers and passenger ships from Japan will also be forced to go through the Bashi Channel.

Peace is not cheap, strength is key

In the past, the United States hoped to use diplomatic means to get Beijing to conform to international rules; Washington also expected economic prosperity to democratize China. Because of this, Taipei was labeled a “trouble-maker” whenever it tried to stand up for itself. However, the current rivalry between the two superpowers has highlighted Taiwan’s strategic importance. Taiwan’s wellbeing impacts not only American interests, but also the interests of Japan and Korea.

without strength, you are not even a player in the game.” Chang refers to his years of experience dealing with China to say that, although there are many who say conflict must be avoided to achieve peace in the Taiwan Strait, the fact of the matter is, peace has a price. As the saying goes: “Si vis pacem, para bellum”. Only by becoming strong enough to defend yourself can you truly achieve a lasting peace.

Have you read

• Pelosi’s Taiwan visit was a US-made crisis 
• Should Taiwan put its future in U.S. hands?

Edited by TC Lin
Translated by  Jack Chou
Uploaded by Ian Huang