In early April, former President of the Republic of China, Ma Ying-jeou, appeared at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing and shook hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

This was the first meeting between the two since the 2015 Singapore "Ma-Xi Meeting" in Singapore.

"You haven't changed at all," Xi, wearing a red tie, said with a smile to Ma in a blue tie. Like during the Ma-Xi meeting back then, the ties of the two symbolize the two parties, the Kuomintang and the Chinese Communist Party. 

Nine years have passed, and today Xi still reigns supreme, while Ma has already stepped down from public office and party positions.

Xi treated this "ordinary" friend well, meeting him in the East Hall, where foreign heads of state are received. Besides the Director and Deputy Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office, there were also two members of the Political Bureau Standing Committee — Wang Yang, Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference responsible for Taiwan affairs, and Cai Qi, who also serves as the Director of the General Office of the Central Committee. It is rare for three members of the Standing Committee to meet with Taiwanese guests.

Nine years later, there have been huge changes in cross-strait relations and the international situation. Why hold the second meeting at this time?

Insiders told CommonWealth that the planning for this visit had begun before the fishing boat incident in Kinmen in February.

In other words, Beijing extended the invitation immediately after Taiwan’s presidential election.

Beijing's initiative in extending the invitation implies that Xi Jinping has something to say.

New Ma-Xi Agenda: the Chinese Nation

"Mr. Ma has always had Chinese national sentiments, insisted on the ‘1992 Consensus’, opposed Taiwan independence, promoted the peaceful development of cross-strait relations, promoted youth exchanges between the two sides, and devoted himself to rejuvenating the Chinese nation. I highly appreciate this," Xi said at the beginning.

The "1992 Consensus" and "anti-Taiwan independence" were the consensus reached by the two during the first meeting; while "Chinese nation" is the key word emphasized by both parties this time.

Xi Jinping emphasized that both sides of the strait belong to the Chinese nation, stating that "there is no knot that cannot be untied, and no problem that cannot be discussed," and that "different systems cannot change the objective fact that both sides belong to one country and one nation."

From Ma choking up at the Yellow Emperor Mausoleum to tearfully singing "The Ballad of the Great Wall" on the Great Wall, the focus on national identity was evident throughout the trip.

Chao Chunshan, an honorary professor at Tamkang University's Institute of China Studies who participated in the first Ma-Xi Meeting, bluntly stated that emphasizing the historical, cultural, and national connections between the two sides is a soft appeal different from that of 2015.

Over the past nine years, there has been a noticeable shift in Taiwan's social identity. Beijing has realized that to promote peaceful reunification across the strait, it must first establish cultural roots, with a primary focus on the youth emphasized by both Ma and Xi. Future cultural work targeting the youth will be of paramount importance in cross-strait affairs.

Xi Jinping's Last Goodwill?

Overall, Chao Chunshan believes that Xi's speech did not go beyond the scope of the "Two Sessions" in March.

Inviting Ma to Beijing at this time is to use this occasion to reiterate to Taiwan society, the incoming Lai Ching-te government, and the United States: both sides belong to the Chinese nation, and cross-strait issues should be resolved by themselves.

Rather than seeing Xi soften his stance, we should understand these remarks as his last goodwill. "All the kind words have been said. If (Taiwan) is still unwilling to meet in the middle and continues to diverge, there will be no peace across the strait," Chao said.

Since April 10th coincided with the US-Japan summit and the 45th anniversary of the signing of the Taiwan Relations Act, there were many speculations beforehand that Beijing would make a statement on the Indo-Pacific situation through the "Ma-Xi Second Meeting."

However, from the opening remarks of both sides and the official releases from Chinese state media, there was no mention of related issues by Ma and Xi. Xi Jinping only mentioned that "external interference cannot block the historical trend of national reunification."

Chao said that for China, cross-strait relations are "domestic issues" and not suitable occasions for diplomatic statements.

Xi recently frequently met with foreign guests, including Stephen Schwarzman, Chairman of the Blackstone Group, and Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard University's Kennedy School who proposed the Thucydides Trap concept.

Chao believes that the recently concluded Two Sessions show that China's current focus is on internal economic issues, requiring a relatively stable external environment. Beijing also seeks to ease tensions in Sino-US relations and cross-strait relations. "Beijing does not want a conflict in the Taiwan Strait at this time. This was never their top priority," he said.

Beijing Will Invite More Non-Green Politicians to Visit 

It is worth noting that the second Ma-Xi meeting is also in line with the implementation of the CCP's united front work against Taiwan.

A scholar who has participated in Kuomintang affairs judged that holding the meeting echoes the emphasis on "uniting patriotic forces" emphasized at the beginning of the year in the CCP's Taiwan work conference and the political resolution of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. It can be foreseen that Beijing will invite more non-Green camp political figures to visit the mainland in the future.

Assistant Professor Lu Xi of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore holds a pessimistic view of cross-strait relations, believing that the two sides are gradually drifting towards conflicts.

Beijing's current approach belongs to the "polite" part of "polite before force." By bypassing the Taiwan government and mainstream public opinion and interacting with these political figures, Beijing can claim to have extended the greatest goodwill to Taiwan and constructs legitimacy for its "peaceful reunification" narrative and paves the way for possible military actions in the future.

Beijing has repeatedly claimed that the election results show that the Democratic Progressive Party does not represent mainstream public opinion in Taiwan. However, Lu believes that the core issue of this election is domestic policy, and the results of the past two elections have shown that there is increasing consensus among the people regarding Taiwan's political system.

"China has always adhered to its position, ignoring the changes in Taiwan's demographic structure and self-identity over the past 30 years, leading to the growing gap between the two sides," Lu said.

Ma Struggles to Influence Cross-Strait Trends

"I don't think we need to overstate the special significance of this 'Ma-Xi Meeting'," Lu emphasized.

On the one hand, Ma no longer holds any public or party positions, and this visit represents only himself; on the other hand, Ma's influence within the party has rapidly waned.

Insiders pointed out that Ma's visit this time was characterized as a private trip and was not discussed with the Kuomintang beforehand. While the Kuomintang publicly expressed optimism about its success, there were private concerns within the party about whether Ma's remarks would put the party in a difficult position and whether this trip would exacerbate the competition for discourse power on cross-strait relations within the Kuomintang.

Observing Ma's visit, Chao believes that he is like "Don Quixote": a retired head of state with national sentiments, attempting to ease the dangerous tensions across the strait single-handedly. However, whether this can be realized is still a long way off.

"Just relying on Ma alone is not enough. We cannot overestimate his role," Chao said.

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Have you read?

• Why China's Taiwan Policy has yielded limited results
• Following Kinmen patrol fatalities, will China keep challenging the Taiwan Strait median line?
• China's annual Two Sessions: How will they impact Taiwan?

Uploaded by Ian Huang