Global energy policy is the most uncertain it has been since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Germany, always explicit in its anti-nuclear stance, made a startling announcement six months after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The combination of war, the stoppage of French nuclear power plant operation, and droughts knocking out hydropower production has driven natural gas prices across Europe up nearly 400 percent over last year, while the cost of electricity in Germany has tripled. Moreover, in early September Russia announced that it was halting production of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline, which supplies Europe with 40 percent of its natural gas, indefinitely.

This prompted Robert Habeck, Germany’s Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, to announce in early September that two out of three nuclear power plant units that were originally set to be decommissioned by the end of the year will remain on line for at least another four months for emergency deployment in case of energy shortages.

The next week, the “five economic wise men” of the General Economic Development Evaluation Expert Committee, an independent think tank, issued a joint open letter in the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung criticizing the move.

The five economists opined that, with electricity prices going through the roof and no end of the war in sight, rather than sitting idle, nuclear power facilities should continue to provide power in order to keep electricity prices down.

A dramatic change transpired in late September with Habeck’s announcement that two nuclear power plants in the south of Germany would continue operation. Thus, Germany will not be shutting down nuclear power generation this year.

Global "no nuke" movement continues

In an opinion poll taken in early August by Der Spiegel, 80 percent of Germans supported the extended operation of nuclear power plants. Even Socialist Party members in the Bundestag spoke out in favor of this approach, such as 34-year-old representative Isabel Cademartori, who supported keeping the plants in service following the outbreak of war between Russia and the Ukraine.

“A robust industry is Germany’s economic lifeline,” she stressed in an interview. “If the economy and industry develop further, and we want to achieve climate goals, we shouldn’t easily give up nuclear power.”

Nuclear plant in Germany (Source: Chien-Ying Chiu)

It’s not only Germany; in February French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron asserted that the revival of France’s nuclear power industry was essential, and that the country would be building at least six new large nuclear reactors, as well as invest one billion euros in the research and development of small module reactor units. In March, Finland’s Olkiluoto 3 came on line, supplying 14 percent of Finland’s power. It was the first nuclear reactor to commence operation in Europe in the past 15 years.

In July, the UK approved a 30-billion pound budget for the Sizewell C nuclear plant, and investment in next-generation nuclear power technology.

Even in Japan, which bore the brunt of the Fukushima meltdown, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida asserted that the country would reboot its nuclear power plants and develop next-generation reactors. Currently, 10 generators have gotten local government approval to restart, with nine more set to resume operation by next summer.

After President Yoon Suk-yeol took office, South Korea made an about face in its anti-nuclear stance, announcing in August that it would make concerted efforts to develop its nuclear industry, including building six new nuclear power reactors. Nuclear power, which currently accounts for 27 percent of South Korea’s energy production, will supply nearly 33 percent by 2030.

Is Taiwan still determined to be nuclear free by 2025?

In August, the Chinese National Federation of Industries (CNFI) issued a white paper, which noted that as Taiwan’s demand for electric power continues to rise, all forms of energy must be considered. Accordingly, it called on the government to carefully evaluate allowing existing nuclear -power plants to remain in service, playing the role of reserve energy, and not rashly eliminate nuclear power as an energy option.

“Taiwan has switched to natural gas for energy in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, but liquid natural gas must be kept cold during transport, which is tantamount to wasting energy overseas,” noted CNFI director Matthew Miau at a press conference, adding that Taiwan should reassess its energy issues from scientific, environmental, and mathematical perspectives.

With Germany taking the lead, is the entire world really “anti-nuke”? For Taiwan, which has pledged to be nuclear free by 2025, this is a fundamental reform of a trend.

CommonWealth traveled to 11 cities across Germany, France, and the UK to gain a better understanding of Europe’s energy options.

“The Russia-Ukraine war has made us see the danger of natural gas supplies. The PRC used (U.S. House Speaker Nancy) Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan as a pretext to conduct military exercises, causing us to stare at natural gas ships every day and run war games scenarios to model what would happen with a blockade of Taiwan,” related Tseng Wen-Sheng, deputy minister of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and acting chairman of Taipower.

Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the Ministry of Economic Affairs’ weekly briefing routinely includes reports on the international energy market and technological transformation. “We’re keeping a close eye on it,” he stresses, as Europe’s energy issues this year are multi-layered and complex.

Nuclear power in a pinch, long-term energy goals unaffected

The complex part of European energy policy is that it must be divided between the long term and short term.

Despite Germany’s announcement that it would be keeping nuclear power plants slated to be decommissioned on reserve, Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action spokesman Stephan Haufe emphatically told CommonWealth that “nuclear power generation has no future in Germany.” He stressed that keeping nuclear power plants on standby and firing coal-powered plants back up was merely a calculated strategy, and that long-term climate goals would remain unchanged.

According to statistics from a report on the worldwide nuclear energy industry, nuclear power generation has dropped 17% in terms of overall wattage over the past 20 years across the European Union, while renewable energy production has grown over 20 times. Projecting from these trends, the golden cross should be reached in the next few years.

The related number of employees exceeds 100,000, and major nuclear power countries have a distinct image. France, which generates over 70 percent of its electrical power from nuclear plants, ironically had to shut down half of its nuclear power plants this summer due to water shortages and reactor repairs, forcing it to purchase electricity from Germany.

Under the scenario proposed by electricity distribution company RTE, a subsidiary of France’s national power company,  France’s overall energy demands will decrease nearly 50 percent by 2050 through aggressive energy conservation and raising energy utilization rates. As transportation and industry move steadily to electric power over burning petroleum, electricity demand will increase greatly, yet nuclear power will drop to a third of all power generation, as renewable energy rises in its place.

The United Kingdom is the exception, as the only economic body that is upping the nuclear energy production ante. Prior to stepping down, former UK PM Boris Johnson announced that not only did the country look to build new nuclear energy plants, but it was keen to develop the next generation of nuclear energy technology. The goal is to achieve 100 percent low-carbon electrical power by 2030, with nuclear energy production growing to a 25 percent share, and possibly accounting for one half of energy production by 2050.

“We can’t easily give up on all energy production sources,” Germany’s five economic wise men stressed.

Standing at the energy crossroads, how will Germany, France and the UK make their choices? How do they balance the pros and cons? And how will Taiwan choose? This should be up to the people to decide.

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Have you read?

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Translated by  David Toman
Edited by TC Lin
Uploaded by Ian Huang