A rumor shook the Chinese capital.

The disappearance of China's Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, a close ally of Xi Jinping, has been missing for nearly a month, and he is not the only official who has recently “disappeared."

The inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party remain tightly sealed, leaving the outside world to speculate on policy directions based on public ceremonies and official media pronouncements. Consequently, the movements of high-ranking officials are naturally closely watched by outsiders.

Problems Emerge for Xi’s Inner Circle

Qin Gang was appointed China’s ambassador to the United States two years ago. After only 17 months, he was promoted to Foreign Minister, also concurrently serving as a state councilor, surpassing several other more senior deputy foreign ministers.

His uncharacteristically rapid rise within a CCP order that emphasizes seniority and political connections demonstrated the leadership's trust in him.

However, unexpectedly, six months later, he became the first senior official in more than two decades to vanish without a trace. This occurred just as China and the U.S. were attempting to repair bilateral relations, and U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had invited Qin Gang for a visit to the U.S.

Looking at the publicly disclosed schedule of China's Foreign Minister, one week before the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, Qin Gang was originally set to attend, only to be replaced by Wang Yi, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, later explained, "Qin Gang will not attend this meeting due to health reasons.”

During the most recent regular Foreign Ministry press conference, officials showed surprising signs of unease. When foreign journalists in Beijing asked consecutive questions about Qin Gang's whereabouts from four different angles, spokesperson Mao Ning repeatedly stated, "I have no information to provide on this issue." The anxious tone of Mao’s statements only fueled the rumors surrounding Qin Gang’s whereabouts.

Failure to manage inner circle, crossing political line

Chinese social media was abuzz with rumors that Qin’s disappearance was related to health issues, or a romantic involvement with a spy.

"Health reasons may not be entirely unbelievable," said Richard McGregor, a senior researcher at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Australia. "However, the longer the absence, the more likely there might be other, more serious reasons," McGregor added.

Tsai Wen-hsuan, a researcher at the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica, suggested that if the rumors of entanglement with a spy mistress were true, Qin Gang would have clearly crossed a political red line, given Xi Jinping's emphasis on "family virtues" and "managing those around us.”

“It’s common for high-ranking PRC officials to have mistresses, but such relationships cannot be made public,” noted Deng Yuwen, a former deputy editor at the Central Party School's official publication, Study Times, who now resides in the United States. "Therefore, Qin Gang's political career has pretty much come to an end.”

Qin Gang’s demise should not be expected to impact Beijing’s foreign policy over the short term.

Over the course of Qin Gang’s month-long disappearance, a higher-ranking diplomat, Wang Yi, attended many diplomatic events on his behalf. For now, Wang Yi remains visible on the diplomatic stage.

However, for observers of the PRC political scene, the Qin Gang saga has opened up a crack for observing Xi Jinping’s inner circle after the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.

Instability among personnel raises questions about overall stability

Following the 20th CCP National Congress, Xi Jinping made major moves to promote his trusted associates, emphasizing political pragmatism, and upholding the “Xi Jinping leadership core.”

The status of another close Xi Jinping ally has also attracted attention.

"Beyond Qin Gang, we should also pay attention to the movements of Wang Xiaohong, the director of the Special Security Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security," offered one unnamed high-level Taiwanese national security analyst.

Currently Secretary of the CCP Secretariat, Wang Xiaohong is not only a former subordinate of Xi Jinping in Fujian, but he also wields significant power.

Beijing’s leadership depends on the "Four Instruments": the sword, the gun, the pen, and the purse. Among these, the "sword," to which Wang Xiaohong belongs in the Special Service Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, bears the important responsibility of protecting high-level leaders.

In early July, the Ministry of Public Security issued an announcement stating that senior security official Wang Zhizhong, a former deputy minister of public security, would concurrently serve as the secretary of the party committee and director of the Special Security Bureau. This announcement indicates that Wang Xiaohong has publicly relinquished control of the bureau's crucial operations.

“With changes to two key allies of Xi Jinping, further observation of the impact on political stability is merited,” stressed an anonymous top national security official.

The case of Qin Gang is only the beginning of the opening of this black box. As the Chinese Communist Party loudly trumpets "maintaining stability," the outside world is watching the government’s next moves even closer.

(Editor’s note: This article was originally published in Chinese July 20th. Qin was ousted as PRC Foreign Minister on July 25th)

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Translated by David Toman
Uploaded by Ian Huang