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Autocracy a major blow to Chinese technology: Yasheng Huang

Autocracy a major blow to Chinese technology: Yasheng Huang

Source:Chien-Tong Wang

Chinese economy expert Yasheng Huang has developed a database tracking the history of scientific development in China. In this interview with CommonWealth, Huang explains what this research can tell us about the future of Chinese technology.

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Autocracy a major blow to Chinese technology: Yasheng Huang

By Silva Shih
web only

Yasheng Huang (黃亞生), a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, is a descendant of a legendary Chinese Communist Party (CCP) figure, his grandfather having been one of the CCP’s first 50 members. He went to the United States to study at Harvard University in 1981 and later joined the Harvard Business School faculty.  

Long a student of China’s economy, Huang has rejected the idea of the exceptionalism of the Chinese economic model. Prior to 2015, many believed that China’s economic development would lead to a political transformation, but Huang saw that concept as being completely misguided after digging up statements and policy archives of Chinese officials and businesspeople.

In more recent years, his research has expanded beyond China’s economy to focus on its historical development of science and technology. He has spent six years working on a “Chinese Historical Inventions Dataset” that tracks scientific development in China over the centuries as well as the reasons for its ups and downs.

Amid the current technological decoupling between the United States and China, what does Huang’s research portend for the future? The following are excerpts from CommonWealth Magazine’s interview with Huang in Taipei (conducted in Chinese), where he was promoting his new book “The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline.”


CommonWealth: What is the question you are trying to answer with your new book “The Rise and Fall of the EAST?”

Yasheng Huang: The book is not about the rise and fall of the “east.” EAST stands for exams, autocracy, stability and technology.

I wanted to explore how the Communist Party has been able to maintain long-term stability and if there were similarities with ancient Chinese regimes. 

It actually has to do with the imperial examination culture. Under the imperial examination system, the Chinese worshiped authority. There was no abstract thinking or systematic analysis, and there certainly was no sense of the “collective action” that is essential in democratic countries. With no commercial, religious or independent intellectual forces to compete with the regime, the state was dominant.

From that perspective, the communist party inherited Chinese tradition, but one aspect that the CCP did not inherit was “succession.” In ancient times, fathers turned power over to their sons, but the communist party hasn’t been able to do that. And it was already facing that problem during the Mao Zedong era.

CW: How is that system related to science and technology development?

Huang: There is an important proposition in economics known as the “Needham Question.” It asks: Ancient China made many important contributions to the development of science and technology, so why didn’t contemporary China have a scientific and industrial revolution?

Homogenized Thinking Means Fewer Inventions

I spent six years building a database on scientific development in ancient China that gathered more than 10,000 pieces of data to determine “inventions per capita” in each dynasty. Our research found that “great unification” in China led to the stagnation or collapse of science and technology.

People generally think of the Han dynasty when they hear the term “great unification.” Emperor Wu of the Han dynasty respected Confucianism, but from a historical perspective, the Han dynasty had Confucianism, Taoism and Buddhism.

The “great unification” of Chinese thought actually began when the Sui dynasty instituted the imperial examination system [in 587]. 

Based on inventions per capita, the most prolific era in Chinese history was the Wei, Jin, Northern and Southern dynasties [220-589]. At the time, more than 30 different regimes were all competing with each other in China. It was a time of literary creation and intellectual freedom. Although the inventions of the era are not as well-known as those of the Song dynasty, there are similarities with ancient Greece, including discourse on the Pythagorean theorem and the medical achievements of Hua Tuo (華佗).  

CW: How does this historical data mirror what’s happening today?

Huang: The development of science and technology in today’s world depends on two elements, and both are essential. One is scale, such as the level of government support and injection of resources; the other is diversity [scope]. Creativity requires the autonomy of ideas.

TSMC is the best example of diversity. It works with many different countries and clients and is constantly absorbing new knowledge.

What Chinese leaders have never figured out is that scientific inventions and high-tech development in today’s world depend on globalization. 

Take Huawei. Most people think it has relied exclusively on the government, but many enterprises supported by China’s government have not succeeded. The key to Huawei’s success was international cooperation. Prior to 2018, it was working with at least 130 American companies.

In the past, many high-tech Chinese companies depended on the support of European and American venture capital. Many of them were companies registered in Hong Kong that benefited from Western finance and the protection of a legal system, but that has been completely destroyed.  

From the perspective of academia, almost all of China’s most cited scientific papers have involved overseas cooperation. The communist party does not allow academic freedom. It has outsourced freedom to places like MIT and Harvard.

Shutting Down Outsourcing to the West 

But academia has inevitably been affected by the change in the broader environment.

Here’s an example. I’m a member of a research fund committee at MIT. There are usually about a dozen MIT professors each year who apply for projects with Chinese academic institutions, but this year there were none. Instead, there were four professors applying to cooperate with Taiwan.   

Even if we wanted to cooperate with China, the latest Chinese laws do not allow the sharing of data with outsiders, and Ph.D. students cannot share their theses. China is shutting out the outside world.

CW: Science and technology was a major theme of the 20th National Congress of the CCP, and the new politburo has five members who are scientists. How do you interpret that?

Huang: They want to develop “hard technologies” such as semiconductors, but they have one train of thought that is not completely accurate – that technology can be developed by throwing money at it.

There’s no diversity anymore. All that’s left is government support. That’s the Soviet model.

CW: A recent study done by the Royal Institute of International Affairs [Chatham House] found that there was a net inflow of scientists into China in 2021 for the first time, as a significant number of Chinese scholars returned home. What impact will that have? 

Huang: That study forgot to attach another important dataset on Europe also having a net inflow of scientists during the same year. The main reason was the “China Initiative” launched by the U.S. government in 2018 aimed at prosecuting Chinese professors who were perceived to be Chinese spies. That led many ethnic Chinese professors to leave the United States. That initiative ended last year.

Money Alone Cannot Create a Huawei

Another reason these Chinese scientists returned home is because of the huge amount of funding they were given by the Chinese government. But Chinese R&D funding is now on the decline for a simple reason – there’s no money. The Chinese economy is in a very, very difficult position right now, and sooner or later spending will have to be cut.

CW: You seem very pessimistic about China’s science and technology development. Are you?

Huang: Yes, very pessimistic. The logic behind investments by Chinese venture capital at the moment is different from that of investments made in the past in technologies and talent. It is all being driven by the government, and in the end will come to nothing. 

Looking at other cutting-edge technologies, quantum computing is pure science, and R&D is extremely expensive. China can put money into it, but it will be constrained by chip supplies. 

The most critical part of this is AI development, because AI is a universal technology that can drive development in medicine, material science and many other fields. But the opportunities are currently all in the United States.

China has very accurate facial recognition technology. That’s because many other countries haven’t spent much effort on it. For large language models like ChatGPT, however, China may have some plug-in applications, but its underlying models are more than a little behind the U.S. To keep China from using the AI open-source model, a new topic of discussion is emerging in the U.S. – should AI continue to be open source?

CW: After China introduced the imperial examination system, science and technology stagnated, but political rule remained stable.     

Huang: Yes. That’s a very special characteristic of this Chinese system. We call it static stability. Democracy in the U.S. and Taiwan can be described as dynamic stability.

The problem is that China is not the same as North Korea. People in North Korea have never experienced economic development or scientific progress, but China is different. The things that Chinese people obtained in the past are now being taken away one by one; this is the first time this has happened.


Have you read?

Translated by Luke Sabatier
Edited by TC Lin
Uploaded by Ian Huang

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